Week 9 College Football Picks & Preview
- sidelinebeef
- Oct 25, 2024
- 9 min read
I can't believe Week 9 is already here. We're flying through this season but it has been nothing short of amazing. For those of you who know, it's starting to feel like 2007 all over again. Ranked teams are losing left and right and almost all the top contenders already have a loss on their schedule. We couldn't ask for better. Last week wasn't great but we pick up and keep moving. So far on the season we are 23-20-2 (+4.7 units) and we're back with 7 more plays this week. If you just want the playbook click here.
Please gamble responsibly and bet within your means.
#17 Boise State @ UNLV
This is secretly a contender for CFB Game of the Year and casuals have no idea! Ashton Jeanty comes into this game with 17 TDs and 1248 yards on 126 carries. He has been electric and can not be stopped, averaging nearly 10 yards per carry! Meanwhile Hajj-Malik Williams has been extremely efficient and productive since taking over in September. These teams are battling it out not only for the Mountain West but a shot at the playoff.
Boise’s only loss was a 37-34 game at Oregon who is number 1 in the country currently. On the other side, UNLV’s only loss was a 3 point OT loss to Syracuse in a shootout. Both teams are at the top of the ladder in terms of G5 competition but who comes out on top here? UNLV has had a gritty defense but they’ve shown they can be run on against Kansas and Syracuse. Let’s be honest, this Boise run game is certainly up there for best in the country with Jeanty at the helm, so it will be tough to stop. UNLV is going to have to bend but not break. While Jeanty is going to have some explosive plays, if they don’t result in scores UNLV will have a good shot. But Jeanty isn’t the only star in this game. Hajj-Malik Williams, UNLV QB, is completing 71% of his passes with 10 TDs and another 4 TDs on the ground. Boise is no stranger to running QBs and have shown they can defend it well by only giving up 28 yards on 20 carries to Wazzu QB John Mateer. (Mateer has 8 Rush TD’s and over 500 rush yards on the season).
This is going to be a high scoring affair. UNLV is going to put up points with their dynamic Go-Go offense and star players like Ricky White III (who has been blocking punts all year long!) at WR while the Broncos are going to lean on Jeanty to get them in scoring position where they’ve been converting great in the red zone. This is going to be the definition of a shootout and whoever holds the ball last will win. I’m going to take the over, root for points and enjoy this one.
OVER 63 (-112)
Washington @ #13 Indiana
Coach Curt Cignetti has taken the CFB world by storm and if you don’t know him yet…well google him. All he does is win. Cignetti has this Hoosiers team off to a 7-0 start, already cashing their win total over on the season. Everyone keeps asking is Indiana for real? Well I know we picked Nebraska with the points last week but now we know… they’re definitely for real. I don’t know about the national championship yet, but they’re for sure a scary sight to run into in the BIG10.
Washington on the other hand has been one of the most difficult teams to understand. After the insane amount of turnover from last year's national championship team, it’s been tough to get a good read on Fisch and this Huskie crew. One thing I do know is, if you see stats this week about Washington’s pass defense ranking among the best in the country, just know it’s inflated. Washington hasn’t played a team capable of actually throwing the ball yet! They beat Washington State who as we mentioned above thrives on QB John Mateer’s run game, along with matchups against Rutgers, Michigan, and Iowa. Well yeah, when 4 of your 7 games are against non-throwing teams and the other 3 aren’t P4 competition, I can’t seriously consider the pass defense to be ranked as high as it is. With that being said, IU QB Rourke is out this week and the game will be in the hands of Tayven Jackson who looked good in relief last week.
While IU will be missing their starting QB, I’m not too worried about this one. He looked decent last week and will have a full week to prepare as the starter with Cignetti. I think the X factor here is the coach. Cignetti has brought an energy to Bloomington that no one knew could thrive there. Even without Rourke, he’ll have the team and the fans up at home for this battle against the Huskies. They won’t need to rely on Jackson’s arm much either as they have a strong running game that may give Washington trouble. Overall Washington’s offense will look as they have all season with Will Rogers but the IU defense is tough enough to keep them from scoring enough to win. When I look at these two teams they’re just total opposites and IU has checked all the boxes for being a real conference contender. I just don’t think the books have caught up to Indiana or Cignetti enough to pay them the respect they deserve. Give me IU -5.5 here.
INDIANA -5.5 (-110)
The BIG10 is chalk full of sneaky competitive matchups that if you saw in the preseason you wouldn’t expect much from. Now I understand that Oregon is a 3 TD favorite here but so was Bama when they lost to Vandy and this is much more believable. Illinois coming off a huge program win in beating Michigan for their 100th year field anniversary was so poetic and my only regret was not adding the moneyline to my card! But as we all know Michigan is not the same team we saw the past 3 years, so how will Illinois actually stack up against Oregon who’s sitting at #1 in the country right now?
Oregon has played some shaky games all season long and hasn’t exactly covered large spreads. But with a national championship competing team like this you have to ask, did they squeak by Ohio State or did they evolve? It’s really easy to just assume they pulled out one against OSU but they’re not ready to keep the train rolling based on what you saw in the first 5 weeks. But I’m really wondering if a big win like that under Lanning helps evolve and push this Oregon team closer to their ceiling. The key to this game is for Illinois to give Oregon’s offense trouble. If they fall behind they’ll have an extremely hard time catching up. I don’t have a play on this game, it's just a weird spot. Oregon could be “looking ahead” to Michigan next week but that wouldn’t make sense because Illinois just beat Michigan! I will say with Michigan next week, Oregon is going to look to go up early and get out of there clean. If that’s the case Illinois has a really good shot cover here.
I’m not even going to deep dive or reference much here, this one is simple. Mizzou stinks and we said we’re going to fade them after that A&M game. Just a reminder! Weigman still does stink he just happened to have his best game of his cfb career the week I called him out on it. Anyway, Bama has been taking a long look in the mirror and they’re going to need to figure things out. While Milroe has stunk lately, I actually believe he’s a great leader and under Deboer they’ll pick this Bama team right back up. Also, Brady Cook is out for Mizzou and Drew Pine is starting. If you saw Drew Pine play for Notre Dame you’d understand why this game doesn’t need a full write up. I’m not going to have a play here but because it’s in Tuscaloosa I’d expect the Tide to cover. Do with that as you will, but just remember this is not Saban’s Bama, they’re going to have development struggles. But this year no team has proven to be a complete team yet so it’s all about how they respond. I’ll be keeping an eye on how Bama bounces back here.
This is a battle between two FIRST PLACE SEC teams for a path to go to the conference championship. Both LSU and A&M enter this matchup undefeated in SEC play after each dropping their opener. Texas A&M has been a whole new team under Mike Elko and Brian Kelly's Tigers have been improving in areas where they lacked at the beginning of the season. So how does this one play out at Kyle Field on Saturday?
Garrett Nussmeier has been outstanding for LSU. He’s efficient completing 65% of his passes with an 18/6 TD/INT ratio and over 2200 passing yards on the season. He’s almost always making the right decisions and his weapons are nothing short of studs in Kyren Lacy, Aaron Anderson, Mason Taylor and more. But a key improvement I’ve noticed is the running game with Caden Durham. LSU’s run game has improved tremendously since the start of the season and they’re going to need to keep that up. But where I’ve really been impressed is LSU’s defense. They rank 6th in the country in sack percentage and 10th in RZ scoring percentage. They play what we like to call the “bend don’t break” style defense and it has worked for them.
On the other side, A&M has their work cutout for them as well. Their defense while getting credit for how well they’ve been performing looked very shaky last week against a very bad Miss State team. They got gashed in the run game a bit and exposed some weaknesses LSU will be looking to take advantage of. While A&M’s DL is the strength of their team, LSU’s OL can match up with them. Nussmeier has been pressured on 22.3% of his drop backs (64 pressures) but has only been sacked ONCE. I think Aggies will be able to get home at least once but it’s going to be tough. While A&M’s offense seemed to put up some points, a lot of them were on the back of short fields thanks to the defense. I don’t think LSU is going to give them that type of starting field position considering they don’t turn the ball over very often. And of course the one week I said fade Weigman he had the best game of his career against a fraudulent Mizzou, but he’s since come back to earth throwing 2 INTs last week.
This one’s tough since it will be at Kyle field but I think the Tigers get it done here. While I think A&M has a great defense, I don’t think it’s been good enough to make me worry about Nussmeier’s performance. Also as I mentioned, this LSU team continues to improve as the season goes on and I think this is just the game need before heading into a bye week with Bama waiting at the other end. Give me LSU and the points.
LSU +1 (-110)
FULL PLAYBOOK
BOISE STATE @ UNLV OVER 63 (-112)
INDIANA -5.5 (-110)
LSU +1 (-110)
MIAMI -21 (-108)
CINCI @ COLORADO OVER 57 (-110)
WVU +4.5 (-108)
AUBURN @ KENTUCKY UNDER 44 (-112)
OTHER PLAYS
#6 Miami @ FSU
This one's simple. FSU stinks so bad. Like horribly bad. I know some dude championed for 123noles and ate the dog poop but until that guy does it himself the Noles may be in trouble. Miami is looking to stomp on FSU when they’re down and they put up a million points. FSU can’t score to save their lives and they lost to Duke last week. Nothing could convince me not to take this play.
Miami -21 (-108)
Cincinnati @ Colorado
Colorado = points points points we know this. They also have no defense (say what you want about last week but Arizona is just in shambles). Brendan Sorsby has been playing very well in this Cinci offense and they’ve been putting up a lot more points than expected. Colorado is the type of team who gets punched in the mouth and doesn’t do anything about it except just try to outscore them. I think Cinci could be live in this game but stick to what we know and take the points. Colorado home overs are 3-0 on the season lets make it 4.
Over 57 (-110)
West Virginia @ Arizona
WVU is 3-4 coming into this matchup and we had high hopes for them in pre season. Unfortunately as I mentioned in the pre season, their schedule is very tough. The BIG12 is always chaotic but WVU has had to dive right into the heart of it. They suffered losses to Penn State (#3 in the country), Pitt who is still undefeated, Iowa State (conference leader) and K-State (perennial conference contender). Games like this are where they beat up on mistake making teams like they did OK State and Kansas. Arizona is riddled with penalties every game and their offense under Dino Babers has been miserable. Tet MacMillan went for 300 yards and 4 TDs in the first game but hasn’t caught a TD since. As CFB fans we could file a class-action lawsuit for play like that. It feels like this Arizona team has given up meanwhile I feel like WVU gets back up no matter how many times they get knocked down. I’ve seen this line move toward Arizona but don’t really understand why. I’ll take WVU with the points here.
WVU +4.5 (-108)
Auburn @ Kentucky
This is another give me. Neither team has managed to score more than 21 points in conference play. This will be a poop bowl between rushing teams that play tough defense. There’s simply not enough time on the clock for them to go over. If it makes you feel any better… according to DraftKings while only 36% of bets are on the under, 63% of the money is there. I’ll ride with the sharps here it’s not tricky.
Comments