WEEK 12 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW + PLAYS

I can't believe we're already at Week 12 and the CFB selection show is airing every Tuesday. It feels like just last week Alabama lost to Florida State. Let's not take a single play for granted and we head into this slate. There are a lot playoff questions and implications but most of it will sort itself out over these next few weeks. This is shaping up to be the dramatic finish we're all hoping for.

WEEK 12 PLAYS

ND/PITT OVER 54.5

RK/LSU OVER 57.5

ALABAMA/OKLAHOMA UNDER 45.5

USC -6.5

UVA/DUKE OVER 59.5

UTAH -8.5

GEORGIA -6.5

ND/PITT OVER 54.5

Looking at these names you’d think bet the under here but I just can’t. Both teams have been hanging 40 each game and have good defenses but shown weakness. Pitt defends the run really well and will force a young QB in CJ Carr to make plays downfield in which he’s very capable of. On the otherside young QB Mason Heintschel has been prolific since filling in for Eli Holstein and has this Pitt offense humming. While ND’s defense has improved since the beginning of the season that is heavily correlated with the level of talent they’ve been competing against. We saw A&M take this team to a shootout in ND, Pitt may end up doing the same at home here.

ARK/LSU OVER 57.5

Again Arkansas is our over team. LSU is without Whit Weeks again in the past 3 games without him they’ve given up an average of 33 ppg. Previously just in SEC play they were giving up an average of only 14 ppg. The LSU defense is very susceptible and Arkansas can’t stop anyone. Arkansas could be a live dog in this game but I won’t disrespect Frank Wilson like that. Over is the play here.

ALABAMA/OKLAHOMA UNDER 45.5

The number here is tough. I’ve been back and forth 50 times on this one but I can’t help but lean Alabama. Alabama is 5-0 ATS at home this season but again I just don’t trust DeBoer enough. Looking at this game I’m sniffing out an under. I know the number seems a bit low but this reminds me of an old fashioned SEC bruiser. Last week in Bama/LSU it reminded of the 9-6 game from a few years back. I have a feeling this one will be the same. OU has a fantastic defense and can stop the run against anyone. Alabama struggles in the run game and will need to hit on big plays to score. On the otherside Mateer doesn’t seem fully healthy and they perform best when he carries a lot. Unfortunately the Bama defense will be very ready for that and force him to make plays with his arm where he’s struggled especially in conference. This is an old fashioned defensive battle here with a final of 21-13.

USC -6.5

Straight up USC is a different team at home vs on the road. Yes, I may be slightly biased towards Iowa but you’re never wrong just early. I’m still not buying this Iowa team being actually good and especially not on a trip to the West Coast. In Iowa’s only tests against good offenses they lost to Indiana and Oregon and had the luck of playing both of them in Kinnick. Iowa will not be able to drag USC down the way they typically do at home and the collapse starts here. USC has a lot to play for with Oregon next on the schedule. If this pass this test they’ll have their final assignment to make into the playoff.

UVA/DUKE OVER 59.5

This number has been creeping up all week. Duke is the most inconsistent team in CFB and loves to shoot themself in the foot but boy do they have a QB. Darian Mensah and this offense have been averaging 38 ppg in ACC play and will look treat UVA like business as usual this week at home. On the otherside UVA slipped to Wake Forest last week and threw away their playoff hopes. If they come out swinging like they have been all season this game will be pure points. If they come out deflated, Duke will hang 50 by themselves and we’re still cashing. Over all day here.

UTAH -8.5

Baylor has been beyond disappointing this season. I was high on them all summer and they opened the season with a tough loss to an Auburn team that also fell wildly short of expectation. It’s time to recognize this Baylor team for what they are and its bad. They’re 2-7 ATS this season and I think Vegas had same thought I did in August. On the otherside Utah is still fighting for a chance at the conference title as long as BYU drops one more game. Utah has been dominant outside the Texas Tech game and lost very close to BYU in Provo. Utah is just a much better team and has taken care of business in spots like this all season. The Utes are 7-2 ATS this season all as a favorite, let’s make it 8-2.

GEORGIA -6.5

Texas is better than people give them credit for and I’m sure you’re going to hear that a ton this weekend. You’re also going to hear how this UGA team isn’t as dominant as past teams. While both of these statements are true, don’t let them mislead you. Georgia doesn’t lose at home unless they’re playing Alabama. Texas and Arch have improved but they still struggle on the road. They escaped Kentucky 16-13, went to OT with Mississippi State, and lost to both Ohio State and Florida all on the road. I’ll lay my money with Kirby Smart and Georgia at home any day.