Week 10 College Football Picks and Preview

I have to be honest. I don't love the board this weekend but I'm grateful for it. It's weekends like this that you have to remember those dog days of summer where you're wishing for football to be back. So let's attack this slate and bring home some winning slips. We are 27-22-3 (+6.33 units) on the season hitting at just under 52%. We're going to need to pick it up for the back half. If you just want the playbook click here.

Please gamble responsibly and bet within your means.

Big Game Breakdowns

#4 Ohio State @ #3 Penn State

I can’t remember the last time we got this many high ranked regular season matchups before November. #4 Ohio State will be taking a trip to Happy Valley to face off against #3 Penn State. Last week the Buckeyes played a tight one against Nebraska narrowly escaping 21-17 while Penn State closed strong against Wisconsin to finish 28-13. Even though Penn State is #3 OSU enters the matchup a 3.5 point favorite.

Ohio State didn’t look great last week against Nebraska especially because it’s just 7 days after we saw Indiana abuse the Huskers. Nebraska came out firing and Raiola looked good but the Buckeyes struggled in the run game on both offense and defense. They were out rushed 164-106 yards by Nebraska and if you look at the rosters that shouldn’t happen. OSU’s biggest question going into the season has once again begun to creep up and it’s the OL. After losing their starting LT for the season the OL is going to need some help. If the OL doesn’t improve quickly, they could be in trouble against this Penn State defense that ranks 6th in opponent rush yards per game. This Buckeye team seems to have all the Jimmy and Joes but for some reason can’t figure out the X’s and O’s.

On the other side, Drew Allar's status is in question for this game. He came out of the Wisconsin game with an injury and was relieved by Beau Pribula. Pribula played well and finished 11/13 with 98 yards and 1 TD but can he do it again? We’ll have to see as this one looks like it’s going to be a gametime decision. The Nittany Lions defense has been good but shown some vulnerabilities that highly talented teams like OSU can exploit if they’re firing on all cylinders. No play here but a must watch game for this weekend.

#19 Ole Miss @ Arkansas

The Rebs are not off to the start they wanted in conference play and will enter this matchup 2-2 in the SEC. While Taylen Green and the Razorbacks are 3-2 and feel like they have a chance in almost every game they play. We’ve seen this before from Ole Miss and I’m starting to think not much has changed. Ole Miss benefits from beating up bad teams on a light schedule and once they start facing legitimate conference contenders they crumble. Not that Arkansas is a conference contender, but they’re definitely frisky enough to steal a win at home here.

Ole Miss relies heavily on their defense since their offense has proven it’s not as strong as they thought coming into the season. They rely heavily on Tre Harris who has been dealing with injury and they’re dependent on their run game but face struggles sometimes against SEC defenses. They put away Oklahoma last week and will try to do the same to Arkansas but it’s hard not to believe they’re looking ahead to Georgia. I think Ole Miss is entering the toughest part of its schedule and if my gut feeling is right, they’re going to crumble. There’s not much to say about Arkansas; they've been exactly what we thought. Taylen Green and the offense can score enough on anyone to keep them live in every game and sometimes their defense shows up. This game will be more about Ole Miss doing what good teams do and putting away a pesky opponent on the road without a scare.

When everyone thinks about Ole Miss they think Lane Kiffin and over, but I’d dispute that. The Under is 7-1 in their 8 games this year and 4-0 in SEC. Arkansas is also 4-1 on the under in their 5 SEC games. I’ve seen enough to know Ole Miss’s defense can stop Taylen Green and Ole Miss’ offense isn’t going to be putting up 50 like they did against Furman and non P4 competition. Under is the play.

MISS/ARK UNDER 53.5

Florida @ #2 Georgia

This Florida Gators team is not the same team we saw get smoked by Miami in Week 1. We tend to forget that Florida has one of if not the toughest schedule in the country. The Gators are 4-3 but the losses all come from highly ranked teams (Tennessee, Texas A&M, Miami). They have handled business against other opponents, especially Kentucky last week in the 48-20 finish. Unfortunately, Graham Mertz is a key player on this team and with his injury he’ll miss the rest of the season. But DJ Lagway’s willingness to push the ball down field might be exactly what Florida needs. Florida has some dudes that can compete on both sides of the ball, they just haven’t managed to put it all together for 4 quarters of a game yet.

The Dawgs enter this matchup 6-1 with their only loss being in Tuscaloosa and a marquee win at Texas. We know Georgia is certainly one of the best teams in the country but they haven’t lived up to the standards of previous UGA teams. While the Georgia defense is still one of the best in the country they’ve certainly lacked consistency. They give up a lot more explosive plays than they have in years past and they’re also not reaching the QB. UGA ranks 43rd in sack % and 67th in opponent pass yards per game.

Listen, I’m not saying the Gators are going to show up and win this game but 17 points is A LOT. Florida has covered its last 4 spreads (3 as underdogs, 2x winning outright) while UGA is just 2-5 against the spread on the season including its cover against Texas last week. I’m not giving out a side in this game but Florida looks appetizing at that number. I like both teams to put up some points here. 4 of the last 6 games between these two has gone over the number.

FLA/UGA OVER 52

#10 Texas A&M @ South Carolina

I’m nervous about this one, I can’t lie. Every single person seems to be on Texas A&M here and last time that happened we went with Mizzou. That didn’t end well. Now here we are again except this time A&M is off an emotional victory of LSU and SC is off a bye. This game will be played at South Carolina which is no easy place to play. The line was A&M -2.5 but has moved to 3.

A&M has won every game outside the week 1 loss to ND. They’ve been on a roll but haven’t looked exactly like a top team does. They’re having issues at QB and now we don’t know if Reed or Weigman will be the starter this weekend. I’m pretty sure by now you all know my opinion and Reed should be the unquestioned starter but we’ll see. Elko is using this indecision to gain an edge as it was clear LSU was not prepared for Marcel Reed. While Reed is the better QB, it’s not because he’s some fantastic passer. Reed only had to throw twice to get out of the LSU game with a win. But his legs have the opportunity to slow down a pass rush and open up lanes for his RBs. A&M even though outgained by LSU 458-351, runs the ball efficiently. They’ll need to continue to lean on that dominant offensive line if they want to do so against an SC team that ranks 15th in opp rush yards per game.

South Carolina, much like Arkansas, has been the fun underdog in many games this year but that’s because they’re better than their record leads on. Even though they’re at 4-3, the losses come to LSU (by a field goal), Ole Miss, and Bama (missed 2 pt conversion). They handled business with teams like Kentucky, Akron, and even Oklahoma. SC has a standout freshman DE Dylan Stewart and overall productive DL that helps keep them in games. They’re also very good against the run so they should match up well against this A&M offense. The problem is can LaNorris Sellers and Co get it done on the other side of the ball. SC is prone to turning the ball over and that’s quite frankly how A&M keeps winning. But if you haven’t figured it out by now, I love fading the public. I also see this A&M team and while their record says one thing, I don’t buy it. Give me Gamecocks here +3. According to DK while only 19% of bets are on SC +3, that’s worth 59% of the total handle. Sharps are big on SC and I’m with them.

SOUTH CAROLINA +3

#18 Pitt @ #20 SMU

Who knew PItt and SMU would be entering this matchup competing for a spot at the ACC title game? Pitt is undefeated at 7-0 looking to go 8-0 for the first time since 1981. While new ACC member SMU is 7-1 (4-0 in conference) with their only loss coming to an undefeated BYU team.

Pat Narduzzi conceded his pride and hired Kade Bell as the OC as an effort to improve his offense. Pitt's offense has immensely improved this year with Bell at OC and Bama transfer Eli Holstein at QB and the defense fares well as they always have under Narduzzi. Pitt’s coming off a 41-13 beatdown of Cuse after returning 3 pick sixes. While that was uncharacteristic for McCord and Cuse, Pitt made sure to take advantage of turnovers as they have all season long. They’ll need to continue to take the ball away if they want to win against SMU. Unfortunately for the Mustangs, QB Kevin Jennings has been sloppy with the ball. Last week at Duke it was closer than they hoped but escaped with a 1 point victory even after Jennings threw 3 INTs and lost 2 fumbles.

SMU, even though touchdown favorites, will have trouble with this Pitt team. Pitt defends the run well but is 108th in pass yards allowed per game. If Jennings can be efficient through the air as SMU ranks 11th in yards per pass, they should be able to take the top off the defense. SMU’s defense also defends the run very well ranking 8th in both opp yards per rush and rush yards per game. Holstein, who was banged up last week, is going to need to get it done through the air if they want to continue putting up points as they have all season long.

ALL PLAYS

MISS/ARK UNDER 53.5 FLA/UGA OVER 52

SOUTH CAROLINA +3

MIAMI -20

MIAMI/DUKE OVER 54.5

INDIANA -7.5 AF/ARMY UNDER 41

VANDY ML

Duke @ #5 Miami

This Duke team has surprised a lot of people under Manny Diaz. They’re playing tough defense and Malik Murphy is pushing the ball down field for scoring opportunities. On the other hand, we have this Miami team who plays these tight games and leans on Cam Ward to go super hero mode to close them out. Duke HC Manny Diaz was previously at Miami before Mario Cristobal took over. So there will be an emotional aspect to this game. While Duke has overachieved this season, I don’t think they do it again here. Their defense plays well but Miami is the best scoring offense in the country and I don’t think this Duke team is going to change that. Duke is top 5 in the country in turnover margin and that’s how they keep these games so tight. The recipe for Duke has been take the ball away and give Malik Murphy opportunities for explosive pass plays. While I know Cam Ward is good for at least 1 INT, I don’t think Miami will turn it over enough to give Duke a chance. This Miami team scores in flashes and if you blink you could be down 3 TDs. Miami as a home favorite has gone over 3 out 4 times this season and Duke as the away team has gone over 2 out 3 times this season. We’re taking a double play here and laying 20 with Miami and Over 54.5.

MIAMI -20

MIAMI/DUKE OVER 54.5

#13 Indiana @ Michigan State

We’re going to ride this train until the wheels fall off. Cignetti has proven that this team is well coached and not afraid of adversity. Even after losing their starting QB last week Indiana smothered Washington 31-17. This Michigan State team is in rough shape but Aiden Chiles and Jonathan Smith aren’t giving up. Michigan State is pesky but they simply don’t have the talent. Indiana is going to go on the road and take care of business here. I don’t like 7 and a hook all too much but I can’t not ride with Cignetti and the Hoosiers.

INDIANA -7.5

Air Force @ #21 Army

This is a system play. This year it’s a bit scary but I can't argue with numbers. This comes from Tom Fornelli on CBS’ Cover 3 Podcast. Since 2005 the under in games between service academies is 46-11-1. Going to ride this until it starts trending the other way.

AF/ARMY UNDER 41

Vanderbilt @ Auburn

This ones simple not much deep dive here for me. Vandy is led by Diego Pavia plus transfers and staff from New Mexico State who beat Auburn at Auburn last year. Vandy has more heart than any team I've ever seen and this Auburn team stinks. Not only is Auburn bad but they're a mess. Freeze has been making staff changes and is feeling the warmth of his hot seat. I can't trust this Auburn team to cover let alone win anywhere! Especially not against this feisty Vandy team. This is more of an emotional play and I like the value. According to DK 63% of bets are on Vandy ML but that is worth 89% of the handle. Give me Vandy +235!

VANDERBILT MONEYLINE