Should Miami Be Worried? Week 3 College Football Picks & Preview
- sidelinebeef
- Sep 12
- 11 min read
PLAYBOOK CHAPTERS
WEEK 3 GAMES TO WATCH
#12 Clemson -3 @ Georgia Tech
Total: 52.5
12PM ESPN
Now here’s a game I’ve been waiting for. I’m high on Georgia Tech this season and this is just the test they need. Clemson almost embarrassed itself last week by squeaking out a close one against Troy. In the pre-season Clemson was on top of many people’s National Champion contenders list but last week the 0-1 Tigers were losing to Troy at halftime! I’m not quite ready to count out Clemson yet and I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt that it was a look ahead spot but Brent Key and this Tech team sure do fare well against ranked teams.
Wisconsin @ #19 Alabama -21
Total: 44.5
12PM ABC
This game feels like it was just scheduled too far in advance. A few years ago Wisconsin was a perennial BIG10 contender and we’d all love to see them lineup against competition like the SEC. Now we just have a broken and battered Wisconsin fighting to rebuild their roster and establish an identity. On the other side we have a Post-Saban Alabama that got their doors blown off by FSU in Week 1. They corrected themselves by routing ULM 73-0 but that doesn’t mean much especially to Alabama natives. An interesting note was all 3 QBs got some time and all 3 completed TD passes. I don’t think there’s any plans to go away from Simpson as the starter yet but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t last the entire season. Alabama should walk away without a struggle here but if that Week 1 team shows up on Saturday Wisconsin may find themselves in a winnable game.
Total: 50.5
3:30PM ABC
We’re getting our first SEC ranked matchup of the season here. Two teams with new QBs and high hopes in the SEC. This game will help us get a good feel for how Georgia’s new QB plays on the road in a hostile environment as well as how Tennessee’s new QB fares against a real SEC defense. This game will be the first of its caliber for Joey Aguilar as he hasn’t experienced an SEC game like this yet. A lot of questions are going to be answered in this game and it will help shape the SEC narrative moving forward.
Total: 55.5
4:30PM CW
Now this is where GameDay should be! The real game of the week is going to be aired at 4:30PM EST on the CW. South Florida starts off their season by besting the country’s G5 darling in Boise State. They followed up their “flukey” win by beating the Florida Gators at home! The South Florida Bulls are reminding me of that Cincinnati team that made the 4-team playoff… but maybe better. They’re clearly being disrespected by oddsmakers coming in as 17.5 point dogs but that’s why we play the game! On the other side Miami looks to be competing with FSU for the best team in the ACC. SMU dropped one to Baylor, Clemson played too tight with Troy and Georgia Tech and Louisville haven’t reached that Tier 1 space yet. Miami bested Notre Dame in Week 1 and made quick work of Bethune Cookman. Do they get up for this USF team or are they going to doubt them like the Gators did?
Florida @ #3 LSU -7
Total: 46.5
7:30PM ABC
Just one week ago this game looked entirely different. We were expecting a ranked matchup between two 2-0 SEC teams. Instead, the Gators dropped one to USF last week at home and are going to have to right the ship quickly before their trip to Baton Rouge. The Gators are going to need to finish drives if they want a shot at besting this LSU defense. The Tigers were riding high after their Week 1 win over Clemson and showed up sluggish against LA Tech. They won 23-7 but had 2 TO’s and struggled to sustain drives down field. While LSU did not lose last week, their win was not very convincing and their Clemson win has lost a bit of value. I’m not sure how many points a win over Florida is going to earn LSU right now but a loss would certainly do a lot of damage.
Total: 50.5
7:30PM NBC/Peacock
I would go as far as to call this matchup a fist fight before a football game. Last year the final was 23-14 Notre Dame in College Station. Can the Aggies get revenge on the road? We haven’t seen Notre Dame since their Week 1 loss against Miami (27-24). They had issues running the ball against that Miami DL and Jeremiah Love finished the day with only 33 yards on 10 carries. The Fighting Irish OL did not look as expected and the defense gave up 27 points which is more than they gave up in any game last year excluding USC and the National Championship. We’re all still questioning if that Notre Dame team can return to the form they were in last year. The Aggies on the other hand start their season with 2 wins over non P4 opponents. So far the offense is looking great for A&M, Reed has 7 TDs and no INTs and the WRs seem to be more productive.These are two very similar style teams and it’s very early in the season so there’s no telling which way this one goes.
Vanderbilt @ #11 South Carolina -3
Total: 48.5
7:45PM SEC Network
If you haven’t been paying attention to Vanderbilt you’ve simply been missing out. They were awesome again last week and defeated VA Tech who hung tight with this South Carolina team in Week 1. This will be the first true test for both teams! (How nice is it to say that about Vanderbilt?!). South Carolina is going to need to play clean sound football and avoid making any mistakes if they want to escape this one cleanly. Vanderbilt LOVES to be the underdog and Pavia is a road warrior. This has all the makings to be the game no one saw coming.
PLAYERS/UNITS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
Ryan Staub - Colorado QB
Staub started the season as the #3 QB on the roster behind Salter and Lewis. Now he’ll be starting this week against a 2-0 Houston team. Staub was recruited before Sanders' arrival by now HS Coach Mike Sanford when he was serving as Colorado’s Interim. His advice to stick it out behind Shedeur may pay off. Staub got to see the last 45 seconds of the first half against Delaware where he threw a TD pass with 9 seconds left. He then led another scoring drive fresh out of halftime with a 71 yard TD pass. Can Staub be the spark this Buffs team needs to get rolling before conference play?
Ty Simpson - Alabama QB
Simpson looked much better in Week 2 against ULM finishing 17/17 for 226 and 3 TDs. However ULM is a much different level of competition than Bama will see the rest of the year. Wisconsin doesn’t have SEC caliber talent but it sure is a step up from ULM. Curious to see how Simpson performs in this one along with the entire Alabama team.
USF OL
Miami generated 3 sacks, 1 INT and forced 2 fumbles against Notre Dame! This USF OL is going to need to get a good push up front and give Byrum Brown some time. They rushed for 4.7 yards per carry and only gave up 1 sack against the Gators. USF loves to get a high play count and possess the ball and running with a good OL is key to that. If this OL can help control the line of scrimmage Miami might be in trouble.
KC Concepcion - Texas A&M WR
Concepcion was not on the roster during this match up last year. He transferred in from NC State after two years where he totaled 124 rec 1299 yds 16 TD, 356 rush yds 2 rush TDs in 25 games. He’s a huge addition to this A&M roster that lacked highlight talent at the WR position. So far through two games this year he has 9 rec for 145 yards and 3 TDs through 2 games. I expect him to be a difference maker in the matchup against Notre Dame.
WEEK 3 PLAYS
Oregon -27.5
South Florida +17.5
Georgia Tech +3
Georgia Tech ML
Clemson/GA Tech Under 52.5
Vandy +4
Arkansas/Ole Miss Over 61.5
USC -20.5
TexA&M/ND Over 50.5
UGA/TENN Under 50.5
Oregon -27.5
Don’t overthink it. Oregon is moving well right now. Oklahoma State is not very talented but they’re still not a G5 or FCS team. Lanning doesn’t like how last season ended and he’s not taking any prisoners this time around, Mike Gundy just happened to be in his way. Northwestern unfortunately doesn’t stand a chance. Oregon has Northwestern then Oregon State before settling into conference play against Penn State and Indiana.
South Florida +17.5
This number is simply too high! Where is the respect?! We’re going to continue to ride and this is bigger than Byrum Brown now. Alex Golesh and these USF Bulls have something to prove to the P4. I can’t back this one up with in-depth stats or trends. This is simply a case of riding the wagon until the wheels fall off.
Georgia Tech +3
Georgia Tech ML
Clemson/GA Tech Under 52.5
I’ve been set on Georgia Tech since the pre-season in this spot. At that time I even thought Clemson would win Week 1 against LSU. Now that I’ve seen two weeks of Clemson I’m even more confident here. I think Georgia Tech could and should win this game out right. Clemson lost a tough one week 1 to LSU and you couldn’t ding them too much. Last week they were losing to Troy 16-3 at halftime! This Clemson team is unsure of its identity and struggles mightily on offense. Clemson only has 151 rush yards and 2 rush TDs through 2 games and one of them was TROY! Clemson is also only converting on 32% of 3rd downs so far ranking second to last in conference with only UNC behind them. Heading into the season one of Clemson’s biggest selling points was “continuity”. They have a lot of the same guys on the roster and should improve year over year being together. Unfortunately, this is starting to become their biggest pitfall. Yes it is a lot of the same guys as last year and a lot of the same issues are still present… I feel like I’ve raved about Tech enough leading up to the season there’s not much else to say here. Brent Key and this team will look to play bully ball against the ACC bullies. Important note is Haynes King will return for this game but Aaron Philo looked good in his absence going 21/28 with 373 yards 1 TD and 1 INT. With King back and Philo ready to go, Tech can attack from all angles on this Tiger defense.
Vandy +4
I will keep riding this train til they kick me off. Vandy shut down VA Tech and held them scoreless in the second half while proceeding to score 34 points. Vanderbilt also gashed them for 228 on the ground, shoutout the Vandy OL I mentioned last week. In Week 1 SC struggled much more against the VA Tech DL and was only able to tally 119 on the ground. While the final was 24-11 VA Tech, they didn’t score the final 14 points until the 4th quarter and one of them was a punt return TD. It was a much closer score than the final leads you to believe. South Carolina ranks 14th in rushing offense and 15th in passing offense in the SEC. Their offense isn’t as strong as you’d like to believe and their defense is still figuring itself out. Vanderbilt also currently ranks 1st in total defense among SEC teams. Vanderbilt is going to punch the Gamecocks in the mouth on Saturday and it will be all about how they respond.
Arkansas/Ole Miss Over 61.5
Both teams have offenses that can fly and lack defense. Arkansas is averaging 54 ppg against two cupcake opponents but we know Taylen Green can score. He’s completing 72% of his passes with a 10/2 TD/INT ratio and averaging nearly 11 ypc. Arkansas is also converting on 70% of their 3rd downs! On the other side Ole Miss is averaging 5.6 yards per carry even after playing SEC competition in Kentucky. Rebels RB Kewan Lacy has also topped 100 in both games. Neither defense is really threatening. After graduating the best defense in school history Ole Miss has regressed and shown a weakness defending the run. They gave up 170+ to both Kentucky and Georgia State! Even after playing two cupcake teams Arkansas defense still ranks in the bottom half of the SEC against both the run and pass. I’m expecting points here.
USC -20.5
Purdue is on that list of “arguably worst team” in P4. They’re at the bottom with Wake Forest and Stanford. USC is averaging 66 points per game! Through two games against Missouri State & Georgia Southern, QB Jadyn Maiava is completing nearly 74% of his passes, has 700+ yards and a 6/0 TD/INT ratio. Don’t over think it, Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans are trying to compete for the BIG10 and are often left out of the conversation. Scoring 60+ points a game after a few weeks will definitely launch them back into the conversation regardless of their opponents.
TexA&M/ND Over 50.5
I’ve been back and forth on this one a few times. I keep thinking back to when the Aggies burned me last year against Notre Dame at Kyle Field. Now they’ll be heading to a Notre Dame team off a bye in South Bend looking to get revenge for last year's game. While these two teams are very similar there's a few differences this time around. For starters Marcel Reed wasn’t the QB in this matchup last year it was Weigman. Also Notre Dame’s DC Al Golden has moved on to the NFL and been replaced by Chris Ash who in his first outing lost to Miami 27-24. The Notre Dame offense looked odd in Week 1 considering how pass heavy they were. They ran just 28 times against Miami. Since 2007 in games where they have failed to run the ball more than 28 times, they’ve lost. This includes last year's losses to NIU and Ohio State. If they don’t establish the run against Mike Elko’s defense they’ll be in trouble at home. On the other side Reed has been pretty much flawless through two games against UTSA and Utah State and he is accompanied by a monster RB room and outstanding OL.
I think Aggies have a real shot at revenge here and I would take the number at 7. Take +6.5 at your own risk or just buy the hook. The moneyline is certainly a thought but I’ll show some restraint for now. I’m most confident here in the over. You tend to think of a defensive matchup when you see these teams but their offenses have been the star of the show so far. Whether it’s through the air or on the ground I think we get a lot of points here.
UGA/TENN Under 50.5
I couldn’t pick a side in this game especially since the line has been moving funny. Tennessee is missing 2 CBs and yet the line swung 3 points in their favor? Like I said I can’t pick a side, it’s going to be a close one. But I don’t think a lot of points will be scored. Both of these teams favor the run game. Anyone who watches Tennessee and think Heupel’s offense “throws it all over the yard” isn’t really watching. Last year Tennessee under Heupel finished 9th in the country in rush attempts and 79th in pass attempts. Currently through two games they rank 24th in the country in rush attempts. The DAWGS rank in the top 25 in Time of Possession and 32 in rush attempts. The identity of both teams relies on establishing a run game, which is going to be tough against these defenses. Historically Georgia always has a great defense and currently both rank in the top 20 against the run. (Last year Tennessee also finished top 10 in rush defense). Georgia seemed to struggle a bit last week against Austin Peay but you have to recognize a bit of a lookahead spot there. I have a hard time seeing this be a firework show especially since we’ve seen these ranked matchups tend to go under so far.
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