RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD IN WEEK 5! COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW + PLAYS
- sidelinebeef
- Sep 26
- 8 min read
PLAYBOOK CHAPTERS
WEEK 5 GAMES TO WATCH
#24 TCU @ ASU -3
TOTAL: 54.5
9PM FRI FOX
I LOVE when a ranked team shows up as a underdog on the road. TCU beat SMU last week in their first real test of the season. This TCU offense has looked potent and Josh Hoover leads the country is pass yards per game. But Sun Devils are favored at home for a reason. They’re 3-1 after beating Baylor (who also has a great passing attack) 27-24. Their sole loss comes to a revitalized Mississippi State team looking to compete in the SEC. This is a banger in the BIG12 and I’m expecting an early season Friday Night Classic.
TOTAL: 60.5
12PM FOX
This game looked very different just one week ago. Illinois got routed by Indiana in a game where they gave up 7 sacks and finished with a total of 2 rush yards. That’s one of those “don’t even watch the film” type games. Illinois is not as bad as Indiana made them look and they’ll look to prove that at home against the Trojans this Saturday. USC takes their second trip cross country as a 4-0 team averaging 52.5 ppg. Jadyen Maiava has been one of the best QBs in the country so far and is yet to turn the ball over. Illinois struggled last week because of some injuries in the DB unit, will their secondary get taken advantage of again?
#1 Ohio State -8.5 @ Washington
TOTAL: 51.5
3:30PM CBS
Not many people are talking about this one. Washington has quietly slid under the radar as one of the rising teams of the BIG10. They’re 3-0 averaging 55.7 ppg and have a 167-55 point differential. Demond Williams has looked great so far completing 73.5% of passes for 778 yards 6 TDs no INTs. He’s also rushed for 220 yards averaging 6.5 yards per carry with 2 TDs on the ground. Washington is a good team that hasn’t lost at home since 2021. If Julian Sayin in his first road start gets off to a rocky 1st half Ohio State could find themselves in a much tighter game than expected. This is one to keep an eye on with the secondary screens.
TOTAL: 56.5
3:30PM ABC
Another one of those ranked dogs I alluded to earlier. While Ole Miss is ranked too, LSU is the #4 team in the country here and catching points! There’s so much juice to this game and you can thank the Kiffin family for that one. Landry Kiffin hard launched her relationship with LSU star LB Whit Weeks on Monday and Lane said take the over. This game doesn’t need much of a write up as it writes itself. If you’re not watching this one you don’t love ball.
Auburn @ #9 Texas A&M -6.5
TOTAL: 52.5
3:30PM ESPN
The college football god have blessed us when games like this are an after thought on the slate. After a close loss to OU Jackson Arnold and the Tigers get another shot at a ranked SEC team with A&M. A&M is coming off a bye after a nail biter win at Notre Dame. Texas A&M is no the defense carried team we’ve seen in the past and is going to rely on Marcel Reed and this loaded offense to score. They’ll certainly have their hands full against a Tiger defense that ranks #1 in the country at just allowing 1.9 yards per rush. The key matchup here is the Aggies offense vs the Auburn defense. If Auburn wants to make a run in conference it has to start now!
TOTAL: 53.5
7:30PM NBC
Rubber meets the road here in this matchup of the week. #6 Oregon heads to Happy Valley for a whiteout game at night time. James Franklin and Penn State have notably lost these big games against ranked teams. You’re going to hear how Franklin is 4-20 against top 10 teams all week long. Well none of that matters here. The stars have aligned and this is Penn State’s opportunity to break through. They didn’t play anyone of note to prepare for this game but then again neither did Oregon. So this will be first true test for each team this season. Oregon’s inexperienced QB Dante Moore will be making his first big road start since I wouldn’t really count Northwestern. This is going to be an extremely hostile environment and the spotlight is on this one. This is not a loser leaves town game and both teams can definitely make the playoff. But Penn State HAS to win this game or the narrative will slide out of control and derail the rest of their season.
TOTAL: 53.5
7:30 PM ABC
Without Saban this matchup has a whole new meaning. Georgia is looking to fill Alabama’s spot as the perennial top of the sport program. Kalen DeBoer is just looking to right the ship and get this team rolling up to expectation. FSU murdered Alabama in Week 1 but we’ve seen a very different team since then. Maybe taking your loss early in this new playoff era serves as an early wake up call. On the other hand Georgia is riding high after defeating Tennessee in Neyland before their bye week. Alabama has won 9 of the last 10 meetings between these two but 8 of those are from Saban. Kirby took that bye week to right the wrongs of the Tennessee film and they’re going to be as prepared as ever. This game is what we live for!
WEEK 5 PLAYS
FSU -7 FSU/UVA OVER 60.5 TCU +3 NOTRE DAME/ARK OVER 63.5 USC -7 INDIANA -7.5 LSU ML OREGON +3.5 ALABAMA/GEORGIA OVER 53.5
FSU -7 FSU/UVA OVER 60.5
I can’t believe this line is at -7. I don’t know how else to say it. I don’t think Virginia is sneaking up on Florida State. FSU has been one of the top offenses in the country but they haven’t played anyone outside of Alabama. I know that Bama game was a bit of an anomaly but the numbers they put up in that game of held true for the rest. While UVA has looked much improved and could really be 4-0 if a ball bounced the other way against NC State, they just don’t have the guys to compete up front with FSU. Virgina’s offense has looked good averaging 42 ppg but they won’t be able to keep up with Tommy Castellanos and company. I like the over here as well. It’s jumped up to 60.5. FSU averaging 48.5 ppg and Virginia will be could for a couple.
TCU +3
I LOVE TCU in this spot, I don’t care if they’re on the road. ASU has looked decent and was able to get by Baylor 27-24 last week. However through 4 games their passing game has been ineffective and Leavitt has a 6/3 TD/INT ratio. TCU has been awesome defense and on average only allows 72 ypg on the ground. ASU’s bread and butter is the run game and they’re going to have trouble staying ahead of the chains. They rank #104 in 3rd down conversion % currently while TCU’s defense ranks #6 in opp 3rd down conversion %. I think Hoover and the TCU WRs will be able to push the ball down field on this Sun Devils defense and the wrong team is favored here. TCU +3.
NOTRE DAME/ARK OVER 63.5
This is a no brainer for me. Arkansas is an over team all year we knew that. Notre Dame has struggled with the loss of Al Golden (defensive coordinator) and has gone over in all 3 of its games so far. We know Arkansas can’t stop much and both teams are going to score a ton.
USC -7
Everyone keeps talking about an Illinois bounce back game but I think they might just be bad. I know we’re not supposed to question the OL when they’ve returned all 5 starters but they’ve been awful. Illinois ranks #130 in the country in allowing 16 sacks in just 4 games. If you throw away the 7 sacks from last weeks “fluke” Indiana game they’d still rank in the 100s! An OL that is supposed to contend for best in the BIG10 and has returned 5 starters shouldn’t be facing problems like this so early on. USC’s offense has been awesome and they’ve done this type of road trip already. While they haven’t played anyone noteworthy yet, they’ve given us no reason to believe they’re a great team. They rank 5th in scoring, 7th in total pass yards and 3rd in yards per game (nationally). USC also leads the nation in sacks with 16 and is 2nd in TFLs. I love USC to get it done by at least 1 TD here.
INDIANA -7.5
Indiana sold me last week with Illinois. I know this is in Kinnick Stadium but Cignetti provides such an edge to this team that I’m just not worried. They rank 2nd in the nation in Time of Possession and are going to beat Iowa at their own game. I don’t expect Mendoza to be perfect but this offense is going to continue to roll against what is an Iowa defense not up to typical standards. Iowa’s OL hasn’t looked great either and they’ll be facing the team that leads the nation in TFLs and sacked Illinois 7x last week! Gronowski hasn’t shown me anything threatening and Iowa’s “new offense” is just a mirage. IU wins big here and continues their war path into the top 10 before facing Oregon.
LSU ML
We were high on LSU in the off season and there’s been reason to back down. I don’t care that the Clemson win has diminished a bit and Florida isn’t that good. LSU has been learning about their problems early without taking a loss and that’s an advantage. Their biggest issue has been struggling to run the ball. That should stop here as Ole Miss defense is not good at defending the run. Currently they’re getting gashed for 5+ ypc and give up an average of 190 on the ground per game! The missing piece to LSU becoming a complete team is that run game which they’ll be able to establish here. Ole Miss’ offense looks good especially with the new QB but it won’t be anything Blake Baker and this astounding LSU defense can’t handle. Again the wrong team is favored here give me LSU Moneyline.
OREGON +3.5
I can’t in good faith put money behind James Franklin in a spot like this. While Penn State hasn’t given much of a reason to doubt them this year, there’s a program stink there I can get past. All the pressure here is on Penn State. After this they’ll only have two more chances at top teams to bolster their resume and that’s Ohio State and Indiana. James Franklin has heard nothing but whispers about how they can’t get it done. On top of that while I like Allar he’s proved that he disappears in big games and they can’t have that. While Oregon hasn’t played anyone of note they’ve been operating how a #1 team should and they finished last years regular season 12-0. Lanning is playing with house money here and he needs to begin racking up wins in these big games to cement his legacy as a big time coach as well. In no world here can I trust Penn State so I’ll take Oregon with the points and they’ll probably win outright.
ALABAMA/GEORGIA OVER 53.5
Here’s another game where it’s just damn near impossible to predict. With what we’ve seen from both teams so far there’s no reason Alabama should be this close in the spread. But that means something. This Alabama team may have righted the ship and figured things out after FSU but I’m not willing to put my money on that yet. On the other side we’ve seen Georgia struggle defensively against Tennessee and I believe Alabama will be able to score with their playmakers. Gunner Stockton has also proved he is capable of running this Dawgs offense however it needs to be ran. I think both teams identities have changed a bit and this is going to be a high scoring affair. I don’t have a side but I’ll take the over.
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