LOSER LEAVES TOWN... WEEK 7 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION + PLAYS
- sidelinebeef
- Oct 10
- 7 min read
We had a bad two weeks but we've hit the lab hard. We're back this week with a slate of college football that you could only dream of! Week 7 is when losers get revealed and winners leap their way to the top of conference standings. With matchups like Ohio State/Illinois, Alabama/Missouri, Indiana/Oregon, Oklahoma/Texas, Florida/TexasA&M, Georgia/Auburn and Michigan/USC we're set for some bangers.
PLAYBOOK CHAPTERS
WEEK 7 GAMES TO WATCH
FRIDAY NIGHT BONUS
#24 South Florida @ North Texas
7:30pm ESPN2
USF takes on an undefeated North Texas with a high powered offense. QB Drew Mestemaker has thrown for 1200+ 11 TDs and 0 INTs through 5 games. The USF defense will have their hands full with Mean Green offense. While Byrum Brown and co look to continue powering through the rest of their schedule in hopes for a playoff spot.
SATURDAY SLATE
12pm FOX
Illinois bounced back from their beatdown @ Indiana by beating USC and taking care of Purdue. Now they have to face the #1 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. OSU has given up a total of 25 points through 5 games. They’ve only allowed 2 TDs both through the air (WK 1 Texas & WK3 Ohio). They’ve also unleashed Bo Jackson Jr. who is averaging over 7 yards a carry right now! Illinois will certainly have their hands full but this is starting to look more like Ohio State’s true first test since we’ve seen how that Texas win has aged.
12pm ABC
Rubber meets the road now for this Missouri Tigers team. They continue to beat up on lesser competition and I’m including South Carolina in that! In the past we’ve seen this song and dance where Mizzou looks dominant and falls short. However this is NOT a Nick Saban Alabama team and we have no clue how they’ll respond after back to back wins against ranked opponents. Alabama is in the thick of their schedule now let’s see if Eli Drinkwitz and the Tigers could take advantage and pounce.
Pitt @ #25 Florida State
12pm ESPN
They simply can’t lose again. FSU beat Alabama decidedly in Week 1 but lost its last two games to UVA and Miami. This Florida State team is talented and I don’t think that Alabama game was a fluke but their backs are against the wall right now as they welcome in Pitt. Pitt took two tough losses to WVU and Louisville but they’ve demonstrated they can play up to the competition of the ACC’s best. After routing BC 48-7 last week Pitt is looking good. Will these teams continue trending in their respective directions or will FSU put their foot down and get the season back under control?
3:30pm CBS
Oregon is riding high after defeating Penn State in Happy Valley 30-24. Indiana is the most dangerous team left on their schedule and it’s right after a huge win. Do I smell a let down spot? Indiana in name alone won’t get the credit it deserves unless Cignetti can keep this up for a few years. However I know this Indiana team is a real contender in the BIG10 and even though this game is in Eugene they’re live. Cignetti LIVES for these moments just as much as Dan Lanning.
#6 Oklahoma @ Texas
3:30pm ABC
Not the Red River Shootout we were expecting this year. However it never fails to disappoint. Between Mateer at Chipotle and Arch's offensive struggles who knows what we're in store for here. I will say I don't know if this one will be classified as a "shootout". Expect a big game from two top defenses here.
Florida @ #5 Texas A&M
7pm ESPN
I don’t know if this Gators team has truly gotten off the mat yet. They did beat Texas but we’ve seen them at their worst more often than not. On the other hand this Texas A&M team has exceeded all expectations and could be setting up for a major let down. This ones at Kyle Field so it will be extra challenging for the Gators but you can’t count them out yet.
#10 Georgia @ Auburn
7:30pm ABC
This is a game you have to watch out for. While Auburn isn’t exactly considered a playoff team, they’re still good to pull one off at home. Hugh Freeze is in need of a big SEC win after losing to OU and Texas A&M each by one score. Kirby is not happy about the Alabama loss and will need to have this team rolling to get through the rest of the schedule unscathed. Any trip to Jordan Hare is dangerous but this one feels really risky.
#15 Michigan @ USC
7:30pm NBC
Bryce Underwood and the Wolverines trip out west to meet USC in a battle between two 4-1 BIG10 teams. With one loss already and a game against Ohio State still on the schedule Michigan can’t afford to drop another one. Meanwhile USC took their bye week to reflect on their loss to Illinois and hone in on Michigan. This is going to be one of the better BIG10 matchups this entire season!!!
WEEK 7 PLAYS
ALABAMA -3
INDIANA +7
TEXAS +1.5
UNDER 44.5
NC State/ND OVER 59.5
IOWA STATE -2.5
USC -2.5
ALABAMA -3
This is a classic spot for Mizzou. We’ve seen time and time again Mizzou beat up on bad competition and enter a game like this with heavily inflated stats. While Mizzou’s ranking in top 5 in the country across most categories they haven’t faced anyone for real yet. In the two games against decent competition with Kansas and South Carolina they were susceptible to the pass. Daniels threw for 223 and TDs in a tight game and Sellers threw for over 300 and 2 TDs. Ty Simpson has been getting each week and ranks 9th nationally in Pass Yards per game with 13 TDs and 1 INT. Alabama’s passing offense is going to take advantage of the Tigers overrated defense and they’ll also introduce their running game. Alabama has lacked a running game to start the season but Jam Miller returned last week with 22 carries for 136 yards and a TD.
This won’t be the 34-0 blowout it was last year and Mizzou will be more competitive but Alabama can’t afford to slip here as they’re in the thick of their schedule. The passing game will continue to improve and the running game will look reinvigorated against solid competition while Mizzou falls back down to Earth just as they do every year around this time. Alabama -3 (would love -2.5 but too juiced).
INDIANA +7
The number is simply too large here. It was at 10 just a week ago and has been bet down since. Statistically Indiana’s profile is slightly better than Oregon when it comes to things like EPA per play on both offense and defense! Indiana simply doesn’t get credit because of it’s name but Cignetti is BUILDING a program. With a QB like Mendoza at the helm and the experience of losing to OSU and ND last year this IU team is different. Oregon is no slouch and will most likely win this game but I don’t think it will be easy. They struggle on early downs which is where IU excels and their pass rush has not been special. If IU can control the ball and put points on the board, I have no worries about their defense giving Dante Moore some trouble, especially with the return of De’Angelo Ponds. I wish I got to this before the hook disappear but we’ll take at 7 or more. Hoosiers +7.
TEXAS +1.5 UNDER 44.5
This line has been all over the place due to Mateer’s trip to Chipotle. Based on everything I’m reading it seems like Mateer is going to play but you never know with a matchup like this. We have two plays here and one is simple. We can talk about Arch and Mateer all we want but we know these teams will only go as far as their defenses will take them this year. This is going to be a defensive battle regardless of the Sooners QB. With the news of Mateer the total jumped up 2 points and I’m willing to pounce on that.
Texas was favored until the Mateer news came out, so we can thank that Chipotle worker for better odds. The Red River Shootout is the definition of a game where you can “throw the record books out” because anything can happen. Regardless of what Texas has put out there so far they’re still trying to turn things around. Their defense is good enough to keep Mateer in check and shutdown Hawkins completely. Meanwhile we saw OU get slashed a bit by Jackson Arnold. If Arch can be patient through the air and rely on his legs they may only need 1 final drive in the 4th qtr to take this one home.
NC State/ND OVER 59.5
This is just an “Overs Team” kind of play. 4 out 5 ND games have gone over this year and they’re looking to run it up on everyone for a shot at the playoff. Meanwhile NC State has gone over in 4 of the last 6 and in both Away games so far. With CJ Carr the Irish can score much quicker than we used to and NC State has been putting up points all season long.
IOWA STATE -2.5
This Colorado team is struggling to find out who they really are and haven’t been very good at all this season. As dogs they’ve only covered the spread 1 of 5 times this year. On the other side an undefeated Iowa State took a loss to a lower ranked Cincinnati team last week. This is the definition of a get right game after a big loss. ISU comes out swinging and takes care of business early.
USC -2.5
This ones tough and I’m sure many people believe Michigan is just the better the team but I’m not quite sure. While Michigan’s defense has been awesome USC has one of the best offenses in the country. Maiava and his WRs should be able to get a few points on the board and the Trojans defense that has looked significantly better than last year will get their chance at a FR QB on the road. Neither of these teams can afford to drop another one, I’m going with the proven offense and for the time being better QB at home in this one. Trojans -2.5.
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