IS THE SEC OVERRATED? WEEK 2 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS + PREVIEW
- sidelinebeef
- Sep 5
- 10 min read
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WEEK 2 INTERESTING GAMES
James Madison @ Louisville -15.5
Total: 54.5
7PM / ESPN2
This one is not on the top of most people’s list but for real ball knowers this is a banger. JMU opened the season bludgeoning Weber State 45-10 and hope to compete for the G5 bid to the playoff. They’ll get a chance to face off against a sneaky solid ACC team in Louisville. Louisville handled E Kentucky 51-17 and looks to transfer QB Miller Moss and young star RB Isaac Brown to lead them to an ACC Championship game. It’s a two score spread for a reason but don’t be surprised if JMU makes them sweat a bit.
#11 Illinois -2.5 @ Duke
Total: 48.5
12PM / ESPN
Illinois may have an #11 next to their name but they’re certainly not top of mind when people are searching the Saturday slate for games to watch. They tend to play a slower game and keep the ball on the ground but they play sound fundamental football and have a more than decent QB in Luke Altmeyer. The team no one sees coming here is the Duke Blue Devils. Duke is led by transfer QB Darian Mensah who opened the season 27/34 389 yds 3 TDs against Elon. Neither has played great competition yet but this Duke offense has been on the rise under Manny Diaz and looks to pick off a ranked team at home.
Iowa @ #16 Iowa State -3.5
Total: 42.5
12PM/FOX
El Assico doesn’t require much of a write up! When these two teams compete for the Psyhawk trophy it is one of the storied rivalries across college football. The catch is both teams are frequently so mediocre that it becomes a poor display of football, hence the under cashing in 17 of the last 20 of these matchups. Iowa will look to revamp their offense with new QB Mark Gronowski and Iowa State will look to keep their train rolling and start the streak of 2 El Assico trophies in a row!
Baylor @ #17 SMU -2.5
Total: 63.5
12PM / CW
Baylor’s loss to Auburn is simply not enough to count this team out yet. They’ll be facing off against an SMU team that many are calling fraudulent due to last year's playoff performance against Penn State. This is another intraconference matchup that will serve as a reference later in the year. Kevin Jennings and SMU may have to out score Baylor to win this one. Sawyer Robertson has a dangerous WR unit and playmaker RB and that OL is going to be working overtime after last week. I expect this to be a firework show on the CW.
Kansas @ Missouri -6.5
Total: 50.5
3:30PM / ESPN2
This is a TRUE RIVALRY that extends past college football! The Border War is back after not being played since 2011. This game dates back to the days of the Civil War and slavery! The passion and hatred runs so deep here that Lance Leipold’s minister was using expletives in church! While this game is full of history, I’m not so sure it would help you pick the outcome of this game. Kansas is no longer the team it once was and is even better when QB Daniels remains healthy. Missouri has been stringing together positive seasons in the SEC but features a lot of new faces this year. Kansas enters this matchup as a live dog for sure and anyone can win this war.
South Florida @ #13 Florida -18.5
Total: 56.5
4:15PM / SEC Network
I’m starting to think I’m going to be on the South Florida train all season long. As long as Byrum Brown remains healthy this USF team can compete. They routed Boise State last week and will trip to Gainesville this week to face off against DJ Lagway and company. USF is no stranger to away games against big opponents and we’ve yet to see Florida get really tested after playing LIU in week one. It’s a big spread here and there’s potential for USF to cover. I’m just interested in seeing how the Gators fare against this feisty Bulls team.
Total: 43.5
7:30PM / ABC
No question this is the game of the week. All the conference narratives, future playoff talk and Heisman contention will come from this game in Week 2. True FR Bryce Underwood looked good in Week 1 against New Mexico but will enter an entirely new atmosphere against the Sooners in Norman. Michigan was hamstrung by poor QB play last year and is hoping Underwood is the solution. Oklahoma also bounces back from a bad year by loading up with transfers. Oklahoma’s new offense under OC Arbuckle led by transfer QB John Mateer is LETHAL. But as with most of these marquee teams, they haven’t been tested yet. After Ohio State beat Texas in Week 1 it’s starting to feel like the BIG10 and SEC are going toe to toe with some of these matchups. This is a MUST WATCH game for the season.
Narratives On The Rise
Is the SEC Overrated?
I alluded to this in the Interesting Games preview but I already see this narrative taking shape. It’s clear that the BIG10 and the SEC are the two dominant conferences in the sport. Most fans outside the BIG10 would agree that the SEC is the strongest conference amongst the two but results on the field are starting to shape up differently. Ohio State trumped Texas in Week 1 and won the first bout of conference heavyweights, Alabama lost to an unranked Florida State and Penn State remains #2 behind OSU. Now Michigan will get to face off against Oklahoma but there are some other secret SEC dangers lurking this weekend. While Missouri is not an SEC powerhouse, they’ve been consistently good in the toughest conference in the country. If they drop a game to Kansas from the BIG12 it will be used as a bullet point in the “downfall of the SEC” narrative. Florida will also have to take care of business against this pesky South Florida team. If the Gators are sweating at any point in the second half the murmurs will start to begin. I don’t believe the SEC is necessarily “overrated” but I also don’t believe they’re far and away better than the BIG10. This narrative will be a result of the SEC’s constant need to remind everyone that they think they’re so much better, maybe it’s just Karma.
Players/Units to Keep an Eye On This Week
Jaylon Daniels - Kansas QB
Daniels is the playmaker on this offense. He’s dynamic with his legs and has a rocket arm! He’s 36/45 456 yds 7TD/1INT through 2 games so far (Fresno St, Wagner). After checking out some tape his arm looks good and he’s being efficient with the ball this year. Kansas OL may not be ready to face off against the Mizzou DL but Daniels can nullify that with his legs. If Daniels can avoid turning the ball over to this experienced Tiger defense, he could lead this Jayhawk team to a Border War victory they haven’t seen in over a decade!
Isaac Brown - Louisville RB
Isaac Brown is a true soph RB for the Louisville Cardinals who topped 1100 yds and 11 TDs on the ground last season. He also caught 30 passes for 152 yards and 1 TD. Last week against Eastern Kentucky he only had 6 carries but went for 126 yards and 2 TDs! He’s an early bid for the Doak Walker Award (best RB in the country) and will help this Louisville team in tough spots.
Duke OL Unit
This unit is the key to Duke’s gameplan. If Duke can protect Mensah against Illinois they’ll be able to put up points. Mensah is dynamic with his legs but is a true passer. The Duke OL didn’t look as dominant as they should have against Elon. Illinois’ secondary is one of the most experienced units in the conference and won’t give up easy completions. This OL unit is going to be responsible for establishing a run game and protecting Mensah from Gabe Jacas.
Mark Gronowski - Iowa QB
I don’t think Gronowski is necessarily the key to winning this game but he’s the most intriguing piece to me. Iowa has suffered from poor QB play and is hoping Gronowski can change things after his B2B FCS National Titles. Last week they didn’t ask him to do much, tallying only 44 yards on 15 attempts. We’re all curious to know what this kid is capable of at the P4 level, the question is will we find out here?
Kevin Jennings - SMU QB
Jennings put up a strong soph performance for SMU but had some turnover issues. Jennings did pass for over 3K yards but had a 23/11 TD/INT ratio. SMU also fumbled 24 times last year and lost 12 of them. They can not afford to continue turning the ball over if they want to go back to the post season. In Week 1 Jennings had an INT and a fumble. Keep an eye on Jennings against this Baylor team as I think it’s going to be an offensive show. With a boat race like that it only takes 1 turnover to pull away.
Vanderbilt OL
Clark Lea has been building this Vandy program with help from Diego Pavia and Eli Stowers but mainly the transfer portal. Lea overhauled his offensive line and is excited for the unit he’s putting out there this year. After an up year last year in which they opened the season with a win over VA Tech they look to improve their record again by starting off the same way. VA Tech’s DL looked strong against South Carolina and helped keep them in that game. I like Vandy to win outright here but it will only be on the back of this OL.
WEEK 2 PLAYS
IOWA / IOWA STATE UNDER 42.5
ILLINOIS / DUKE UNDER 48.5
BAYLOR +2.5
BAYLOR/SMU OVER 63.5
KANSAS +6.5
USF +18.5
MICHIGAN / OKLAHOMA UNDER 43.5
VANDERBILT +2.5
UCLA / UNLV OVER 54.5
IOWA / IOWA STATE UNDER 42.5
This is a system play. It's El Assico you have to play the under. The total in the game has not gone over 42.5 in 5 of the last 6 meetings. Iowa has not lost by more than 3 points since 2005 which leads to a close game. We're all aware these are not two high powered offenses and especially not the Hawkeyes. Don't over think it. Iowa Unders are 32-16 since 2005 as an Away Dog (they're currently 3-3.5 pt dogs). Don't over think it.
ILLINOIS / DUKE UNDER 48.5
I sat on this one for quite awhile trying to pick a side and ultimately arrived at the under. Illinois has a fantastic defense that will make Mensah's day tough. Duke's OL didn't look great against Elon and Illinois' secondary is much better than Elon's. Illinois' offense is slow relies heavily on ground game and fundamental football. All good traits for an under team. Duke is also coached by Manny Diaz who is a great defensive coach and has faced Altmeyer before. Duke may give them a fight but it'll be a low scoring affair.
BAYLOR +2.5
BAYLOR/SMU OVER 63.5
Baylor “disappointed” us against Auburn but that was because we had action. In all honesty Baylor played a pretty good game against an SEC team that was full of question marks that ended up looking good. Baylor failed to convert on four 4th downs and only punted twice! I see those conversion numbers going up against this SMU team. Their performance in that game wasn’t enough for me to quit them and in the BIG12 anything is possible. The Auburn Baylor game was a result of SEC vs BIG12 bodies, it won't be the same this week. SMU can put points on the board that's no question but I can't see their defense bottling up the athletes Baylor has on the outside. The Baylor WRs and Robertson looked really strong against Auburn and I expect their OL to get a better push in the run game.
I see this being a boat race type game similar to the second half last week. The issue is SMU struggles with turning the ball over. Last year Jennings TD/INT ratio was 23/11 and the team lost 12 of 24 fumbles! In a boat race game with an offense like Baylor turnovers can be costly. I'm not out on this Baylor team yet and we're double dipping AGAIN with Bears.
KANSAS +6.5
Jalon Daniels. That's really it. I think Kansas is one of the most volatile teams in the country due to his health. He's had some injuries in the past but has looked strong and healthy through two games so far. We're beating a dead horse here because "health" is mentioned just about every time someone says his name, but I'm riding with him into this Border War. He's been more efficient and his arm has definitely improved at least by the eye test. So far through two games (Fresno St, Wagner) he is 36/45 456 yds 7 TD 1 INT and the defense has given up less than 100 yards combined on the ground! If that doesn't make you feel good just know the Jayhawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs and won their last 3 as underdogs outright. Another note is Mizzou kicker was injured and in a close game they may not rely on a FR kicker for a long 3.
USF +18.5
**CAUTION**
This is purely a respect for Byrum Brown play. He did his thing last week and got us the W and I have to go back to the well. Like I've said in the past, we've seen Brown make Saban's Bama sweat before, he's no stranger to an SEC environment. I'm not going as far as to say USF is a live ML dog in this game but I don't see an issue with them being able to cover this spread. The Gators played LIU in Week 1 so we still have our question marks there.
MICHIGAN / OKLAHOMA UNDER 43.5
This is the same feeling I had with Texas/Ohio State and LSU/Clemson. Everyone wants to talk about QB's and offense, especially after Michigan's last season. Oklahoma acquired arguably the #1 Player in the transfer portal in QB John Mateer and his OC Arbuckle. But let's not forget who's playing in this game. Michigan's defense may have graduated some NFL talent but they've had no problem reloading. Brent Venables is also 21-5 in his career against FR QBs. Granted some of that time refers to Clemson during their peak but still. Venables knows how to make it difficult for a freshman QB and I have no doubt he'll do the same to Underwood. This is going to be a rock fight.
VANDERBILT +2.5
VA Tech hasn't beaten a P4 Non Conference team since 2017! Vandy opened the year last year with a win over VA Tech and I believe Vandy has gotten better. As I mentioned above the key to this game is the Vandy OL but they looked great in Week 1 against Charleston Southern. Now you might say, Charleston who? But exactly, Vandy hasn't been in the position to treat non P4 teams like this in the past which is a good sign for them heading into this season. I've also given up completely on Kyron Drones and believe this VA Tech team is trending downward.
UCLA / UNLV OVER 54.5
This is a "system" I'm looking into while Dan Mullen is at UNLV. Dan Mullen can score on just about any defense in the country. So far with UNLV this year he is averaging 38 ppg. I don't think the UNLV defense will be anything special and UCLA will get to tune up their offense after an abysmal Week 1 against Utah. Since 2022 UNLV home overs are 13-6, going to try and sniff this trend out early in the season.
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