COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7 PICKS AND PREVIEW
- sidelinebeef
- Oct 11, 2024
- 6 min read
Updated: Oct 12, 2024
It's time to go to war again. We've got what could be the best week of the season staring us right in the face and that's no time to back down. We're coming in hot. We're currently 16-13-2 (+2.2 units) on the season and only looking to get better. If you just want the best plays click here.
Please gamble responsibly and bet within your means.
3:30 PM EST ABC/ESPN+
Spread: Texas -14
Total: 49
The Red River Shootout is a special game, it’s been played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas since the 1930s! Oklahoma is 11-4 in the last 15 matchups. The Longhorns are a -14 point favorite but anything could happen here! Quinn Ewers will make his return after Arch was able to keep things steady. I think this may be a turning of the tides as we enter a new generation of college football. OU has had a good 15 year run but Texas is going to enter a period of dominance. I’m not giving a play on this game and there’s not much that needs to be said, it’s of course a must watch.
#4 Penn State @ USC
3:30 PM EST CBS/Paramount+
Spread: Penn State -3.5
Total: 51
This is the BIG10! Penn State traveling out to southern California so James Franklin could complain? Sounds like the perfect excuse for a Penn State team that consistently doesn’t show up in big spots. I know I’ve been sort of high on them since the preseason and I still like Allar a lot but I don’t think this spot is great for them. They’re traveling to the West Coast and PLEASE ignore this BIG10 teams traveling across 2 time zones stat because majority of the those teams that lost weren’t favored to win the game anyway. Their offense is averaging 34.4 points per game and that sounds great. But let’s not forget they were in a dog fight with Bowling Green and played a tight one against Illinois. They’ll have to be firing on all cylinders, hoping new OC Andy Kotelnicki is the difference this year, if they want to go to the Colosseum and cover 3.5.
Now I know USC just lost to Minnesota, but they’re in a real get right spot here. Their season’s fate lies in this weekend's game. With 2 losses they can’t afford to drop anymore if they want to make the college football playoff. Lincoln Riley knows it’s do or die time. I think Miller Moss and Lincoln Riley are going to defend their home territory against a top 5 team in Penn State. I’m not going to bet USC on the moneyline here but I thought long and hard about it. However, I just can’t trust a James Franklin coached team to cross country as a road favorite after complaining about travel conditions and cover this spread. Let’s fight with the Trojans +3.5!
USC +3.5 (-110)
7:30 PM EST NBC/Peacock
Spread: Ohio State -3
Total: 54
This is most definitely the game of the week! The #2 ranked Buckeyes take on the #3 ranked Ducks in Autzen stadium AS A CONFERENCE GAME?! We’ve seen these two play as recently as 2021 for a regular season game in which Oregon won 35-28 at The Shoe. I don’t think it’s going to be the same this time around. Both teams are built on the back of STRONG defenses but still have star studded offenses. Ohio State has been dominant in every game including last weeks matchup against Iowa. Their true freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith has been making eye popping one handed catches and a case for why he’s one of the best WRs in the country right now at 18! A key difference in this Ohio State offense this year is their red zone efficiency. They’ve scored TDs on 21/22 drives in the red zone and are the #1 RZ offense in the country! Meanwhile Oregon has struggled a bit in RZ scoring especially due to some recent INTs thrown by Dillon Gabriel.
Gabriel hasn’t been the QB we expected following in Bo Nix’s foot steps but hasn’t slipped enough to lose a game. Luckily he has a stout defense on the other side that defends the pass especially well. They’ll need to continue doing that if they want stop this Buckeye offense from marching down the field with explosive plays. However, OSU under Chip Kelly wants to run the ball with two top RBs in Henderson and Judkins and even mix in Will Howard a bit. Oregon’s defense hasn’t been the tightest against the run as they rank in the 35-45 ranks for defensive rushing stats like yards per rush and yards per game.
I’m big on Ohio State here. I think they flex their muscles and cover the spread on the road in Eugene. Since ‘22 when Lanning took over Oregon is 0-2-1 ATS as underdog. I think OSU’s offense has enough to get it done against Oregon’s defense meanwhile the Buckeye defense is going to give Dillon Gabriel and this Ducks offense a really hard time especially in the red zone. This one’s going to be a fun watch. OSU -3.
OHIO STATE -3 (-110)
7:30 PM EST ABC/ESPN+
Spread: Ole Miss -3.5
Total: 62
Another banger of a matchup but this time in the SEC. Ole Miss heads to Tiger stadium to face Brian Kelly and this light it up LSU offense. Ole Miss dropped a shocker to Kentucky and they did it the wrong week. Had they waited until last week it would have gotten lost in the shuffle but that game stained the Rebs image for me. Ole Miss might be without leading WR Tre Harris who seems to have an ankle/calf injury. It’s unclear if he’ll be playing tomorrow but even if he does I doubt he’ll be 100% in this case. That’s a big deal considering he’s Dart’s leader in target share and by a significant margin. Back to what I’ve been saying about the Rebs is they’ll need to lean on their defense. They’re top 10 in the country in sack percentage and #3 in 3rd down conversions on defense. Which is going to be a key part of this game. LSU’s offense ranks 5th in 3rd down conversions on offense. LSU’s OL is also one of the best in the country and ranks 3rd in protecting the QB from sacks. This matchup will decide the game.
I’m going with Nussmeier and LSU here. The home team is 10-2 straight up in this series' last 12 games. Brian Kelly is 12-0 at night at home since he’s been at LSU and 16-1 in home in general. What Kentucky did to stop the Ole Miss offense was get them off the field on 3rd down. Ole Miss’ offense ranks horrible on 3rd down conversions and LSU’s pass rusher will get after their OL. LSU’s OL stands a much better chance than Wake Forest, GA Southern, or South Carolina’s against this Rebel DL. Say whatever you want about Brian Kelly but he is a good coach and he does win at home. I also am really high on Nussmeier he’s quietly climbing the draft boards with this offense that ranks 5th in pass yards per game. Let’s take it both ways here Tiger ML and Tigers +3.5.
LSU +3.5 (-115)
LSU ML (+136)
OTHER BETS
Mississippi State @ #5 Georgia Under 54.5 (-110)
This ones easy. Mississippi State was holding a close one against Texas. They’re going to look to just run the ball with time of possession and play sound defense. Georgia won’t be looking to pour it on here as they have a gauntlet coming up. They’ll go to Texas next week, and welcome Florida before a bye before running into Ole Miss and Tennessee. Georgia keeps it low here. Take the under.
KENTUCKY -12.5 (-112)
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky -12.5
This ones simple, it's just an auto bet on a let down. Vandy got up and beat Bama last week to make history. It’s hard to come back after that and be ready to face a physically tough Kentucky team that took down Ole Miss. While rooting for Vandy was awesome, this is just a classic let down you have to take inside the number.
SYRACUSE ML(-142)
Syracuse -3 @ NC State
I’m going to ride the Kyle McCord train especially after last weeks game. I don’t think it’s a true let down after Cuse went to Vegas to beat UNLV a non P4 team. I also think NC State is really bad and really young. I don’t know if they’ll be able to keep up with this Orange offense. Just take the money line here.
Comments