College Football Week 6 Big Games & Best Plays

Sorry for the brief time away, I was out of the country for a bit. But don't worry, I didn't miss any action. Now we're back in week 6 and ready to attack. So far on the year we are 12-9-1 (+1.67 units) and it's time to pick it up. Check out the best games to watch, bet, and why down below! If you just want to see the best plays (bets) click here.

#9 Mizzou @ #25 Texas A&M

After a week off, we’re going to really find out what Mizzou is made of this week. The Tigers have struggled to look strong against what is supposed to be inferior competition in BC and Vandy. They narrowly won both games by a combined 9 points. I can’t help but wonder if Eli Drinkwitz has been trying to save some stuff for later in conference play. Mizzou’s offense hasn’t lived up to the expected hype with stud WR Luther Burden and QB Brady Cook but they’ve been efficient enough to get the job done and avoid turning the ball over. They’ll need to kick it up a notch if they want a shot at this A&M defense at Kyle Field on Saturday afternoon.

A&M is sneakily 4-1 and if they even THINK about putting Weigman back in, I’ll fade them with all I have. Marcel Reed has been a refreshing change of pace for this Aggie offense. A&M finished a tight one against Arkansas but when you rely on your defense like both of these teams do, close games happen more than you’d like. Between Le'veon Moss and Marcel Reed the Tigers will have their hands full trying to stop the run game. I think the biggest question here will be can Mizzou’s OL block the A&M DL. They’ll need to get a push if they want Nate Noel to get going but most importantly they’ll need to protect Brady Cook from Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart.

Everyone is high on A&M and thinks Mizzou is a fraud… I’m hearing it so often, I’m starting to think that’s a square take. I’m higher on A&M than I was when Weigman was playing and I also recognize their only loss is to Notre Dame. However, if you remember A&M was a home favorite in that game while ND was higher ranked… very similar situation. This led me to find the following…

Since 2023 The Aggies are 4-5 ATS as Home Favorites and 0-5-1 ATS against ranked opponents.

Since 2023 Mizzou is 2-0 ATS as a Road Dog and 5-2 ATS against ranked opponents.

I think you might have to hold your nose on this one but give me Mizzou +2.5 and MONEYLINE.

MIZZOU ML (+114)

MIZZOU +2.5 (+114)

Iowa @ #3 Ohio State

You keep hearing on Twitter and talking heads on TV Networks saying “Ohio State doesn’t play anybody!”, well time to buckle up. The Buckeyes are going to face Iowa, #6 Oregon, Nebraska and #7 Penn State in a 4 week stretch that is arguably the toughest in the country. While Texas, Georgia, and Alabama are out beating big ranked teams, OSU has been waiting its turn to show what it can really do. The Buckeye offense under Chip Kelly ranks top 5 in almost all offensive categories and the defense not far off under Jim Knowles. Transfers Caleb Downs, Will Howard, Quinshon Judkins, and Seth McLaughlin have all been great fits along with home grown studs like Emeka Egbuka, Treyveon Henderson, 18 year old Jeremiah Smith and a ton more on the defense. While they’ve looked great, they haven’t played a team worth bragging about yet, but that doesn’t deter me here. The Buckeyes are going to make a statement against this Iowa team to start their 4 week gauntlet.

Iowa lost on a late field goal to Iowa State in El Assico but has looked better since. They had a rough recovery against Troy but stomped Minnesota in true Iowa fashion with a little bit of offense mixed in. Unfortunately, their offense won’t be enough to put up points against this Knowles defense. This Buckeye team full of returning starters hasn’t let up more than 17 points in 17 games except in a 30-24 loss to Michigan in ‘23. So I don’t see Iowa putting up 17 or more this time around either. While Kaleb Johnson has been exceptional averaging 171 yds per game he’ll meet his match this week against a Buckeye team that only lets up 63 rush yards per game. While Iowa’s defense only allows 64 yards per game they’ll have to deal with both Henderson and Judkins behind what has proved to be a more physical OL. Iowa also ranks 130th in the country in pass yards per game while OSU is 12th. If both teams take away the run and stuff the box, Iowa will really need to be efficient on 3rd and long against a DL that is 3rd in the nation in sack percentage.

While I think Iowa will keep OSU on their toes in the 1st quarter, maybe 1st half, OSU will eventually pull away the more possessions they get. The Buckeyes are a 3 TD favorite and I’m willing to take it. They are 7-3 ATS since 2023 in conference games with 2 of those losses being to Michigan. I think this is one of OSU's best teams in a while. I have a hard time not seeing them cement their dominance early in the BIG10.

OHIO ST -18 (+110)

#12 Ole Miss @ South Carolina

It’s funny how many different ways I’ve heard this game be laid out this week. I’ve heard shootout, I’ve heard snoozefest, I’ve heard Rebels by a million and don’t get me started on Cocktober. For me I think this game comes down to the trenches. Now that’s a cliche and we almost always say it about the SEC but you’ll hear it everytime we talk about South Carolina. The DL is the strength for this Gamecock team and they lean on them to be game changers. South Carolina is going to try and follow the Kentucky formula to get Ole Miss but I’m not sure if it will work that easily.

I hear a lot of people saying “Kiffin is one foot out the door for Florida” but I don’t know if I believe that. While I’m not saying he won’t take the Florida job after the season, I highly doubt that he’d lose focus when he draws as much public attention as he can. And after a loss like that, I can only think he’s going to lead this team to a bounce back. The offense will show up and will have plenty of opportunities to get rolling thanks to Walter Nolen and the defense. SC struggles significantly on 3rd down and both QB/RB duo LaNorris Sellers & Rocket Sanders’ health are in question. In order to avoid 3rd and longs against #5 3rd down defense in the country, they’ll need to stay ahead of the chains early. That will be tough to do against the #2 rush defense in the country. While I’m not doubting the Gamecock defense competing with Ole Miss, I don’t think the offense will be able to possess the ball for long enough chunks of time to keep the ball out of Jaxson Dart’s hands.

To summarize it all, the one dimensional SC offense is going to struggle against this top ranked Rebel rush defense. On the other side Ole Miss’s offense corrects itself by establishing the run and letting Jaxson Dart get rid of the ball quickly to Tre Harris. I don't have a play in this game but I'd lean toward Ole Miss to cover.

Rutgers @ Nebraska

This Big Red Battle has been on my radar for awhile, especially considering I gave out both teams win total overs! This may not be the prettiest game we’ll see this weekend but it might be the purest BIG10 football you could ask for. This new look Nebraska team will be taking on a gritty Rutgers under Greg Schiano. Rutgers has continued to display their discipline and attention to detail by limiting mistakes and turnovers. They’ve put forth a consistent effort and have ridden on the back of Kyle Monangai (jersey native) to rush for almost 600 yards in just 4 games. The Scarlet Knights are averaging 237 rush yards per game as Monangai is averaging 147 per game himself! But while the run game is strong at Rutgers they lean on their veteran “Dark Side” defense when times are tough. Rutgers has one of the best red zone defenses in the country only allowing opponents to score 54% of the time in the RZ. I think this will be key part of the game on Saturday as the Huskers have been one of the worst RZ scoring offenses in the country!

Now I know I’m very high on Rutgers and I have been since preseason, but this game is going to be a dog fight. Even though Raiola is only a freshman, he’s shown nothing but poise and professionalism even when the situation gets tough. I expect him to attack Rutgers defense with their mid range passing game. They will have to be efficient though as Rutgers is 8th in the nation in time of possession. They will look to pound the rock on early downs as they have all year. This has led them to being 3rd in the country in AVG 3rd Down distance at just 5.3 yards. Staying ahead of the chains is what they’ll need to do. I’m not overly confident in Kaliakmanis' ability to shred Nebraska through the air, but if they can stay ahead of the chains against a Nebraska defense that has proven it can be vulnerable in the run game, the Scarlet Knights could pull one off here.

I’ve been on the fence all week about Rutgers moneyline but that might just be an emotional play. However, I absolutely will take the points without question. 7 points in a game I’d consider a coin flip, is simply too many for college football. If you’re in NJ sorry, but everyone else lock up Rutgers +7 while you can.

RUTGERS +7 (-112)

#8 Miami @ CAL

Who knew Cal would be such a fun participant in the ACC? I had no clue what Justin Wilcox was cooking up over there in Berkeley. Cal fans have also taken to twitter with a never ending barrage of AI generated memes, deeming this game “Woke vs Coke”. It’s almost as good as Catholics vs Convicts but sort of feels like a cheap sequel. I’m not going to have a play in this game but GameDay will be there and the hype building around this one has been over the top. So let’s break it down…

Miami had a scary game last week on Friday night against VA Tech but edged out a 38-34 victory. This leads many people to ask if this is still the same Miami of old. Will we pull the mask off like some Scooby Doo villain and reveal that Hurricanes team who beats up on inferior competition but doesn’t show up when it counts? I personally don’t think so and even if that were true…well Cal is certainly inferior competition. Miami ranks as one of the top offenses in the country especially through the air. Cam Ward is everything we thought and more! One area though where Miami has proven to be human is in the run game. Their rushing attack appears a bit better than it is on paper with a lot of yards coming from lower depth chart guys in garbage time. Cal has a secret weapon by the name of Jadyn Ott. He led the PAC 12 in rushing last year despite Martinez's performance at Oregon State. His health has been in question a lot this year but after a week of rest he may finally be ready. I’d keep an eye out for Ott this week.

While we know Miami has an awesome passing offense, Cal’s pass defense is no slouch. They have 10 interceptions on the year and Cam Ward has proven in his career to be susceptible to some bad forced throws. Cal has also figured out the secret behind turnover luck and has capitalized on opponents' mistakes all season long. If Cal wants to win this one they’ll need to continue that. Unfortunately, while I’m doing my best to give Cal a chance at winning here, I think Miami’s defense is going to be too much. Cal’s OL will not be able to keep up with the Canes DL and if Miami scores quick like we know they can… the Golden Bears are going to be in trouble. All in all, don’t be surprised if Cal keeps this one close, they’re riding high with an attitude that can’t be measured by on field statistics. They’re really looking to prove they belong in the ACC and I love how much passion they’ve displayed this year. While this new age conference matchup is not what we’d consider a marquee game, you should tune in for this one.

ALL BETS

MIZZOU +2.5 -112

MIZZOU ML +114

OHIO STATE -18 -110

RUTGERS +7 -112

SYRACUSE +6 -112

SYRACUSE ML +185

INDIANA -13.5 -112

TENNESSEE -14 -115

MICHIGAN ML +102

OTHER GAMES

Syracuse @ UNLV (Cuse ML, Cuse +6)

UNLV has been making headlines to start this CFB season but mainly for off the field reasons. That was until Hajj-Malik Williams stole the show last week. UNLV has been making their case to be the G5 representative in the playoff and it’s been an awesome story. I think their undefeated run could come to an end today. Kyle McCord has been lighting it up since joining the Orange and UNLV’s defense is going to have to keep up. They’ll rely heavily on their pass rush to force McCord to make mistakes. I think the key here is if McCord could avoid turning the ball over, their offense will have no problem getting down the field. While UNLV looked great last week against Fresno State, they’re not exactly the same tier of competition as Syracuse. This could turn into a shootout and if that’s the case I’ll take McCord and company. I saw this line come down from 7.5 to 6 but I still like Cuse. Just a little tip, 73% of the handle on ML bets is on Syracuse +185 while only holding 43% of tickets. That means sharp money is on Cuse ML and I see the value. Take em both ways.

Indiana @ Northwestern (IU -13.5)

Simple, don’t overthink it. I told you all year Indiana is a wagon. We even pushed their line up against UCLA. Northwestern is not good, and Cignetti will be looking to shape up after a sloppy win against Maryland. This is a tune up game before heading into the bye week so they can welcome Nebraska on Oct 19th.

Tennessee @ Arkansas (Tenn -14)

Tennessee has done nothing but cover spreads this year and I’m going to ride the train until the wheels fall off. While Arkansas seems fun they’re known the shoot themselves in the foot quite often. I don’t expect that to change here. This will also be one of the best defenses they’ve faced so far, so if they don’t limit mistakes and score efficiently, they’re going to be playing a game of catch up all day. Arkansas is the type of team who could win a one score game but when they’re 2 TD dogs they’re likely to act as expected. Rocky top -14.

Michigan @ Washington (Michigan ML)

Everyone is counting out Michigan because they don’t have a QB but I simply don’t think it matters. They have a serious defense and while it looks human at times, I trust it. Washington has had consistent QB play from Rogers but they shot themselves in the foot against Rutgers one too many times. They don’t have the most consistent RZ offense either and they’ll need to be efficient if they want to put up points against Michigan. Michigan is going to pound the rock similar to how Rutgers did and Kalel Mullings will find the end zone. This is definitely going to be a low scoring game but that’s exactly what Michigan likes. This also fits that Texas A&M trope we’ve seen of lesser ranked teams being favorites at home against higher ranked opponents. I’m going to stick with the trend and take the higher ranked dog just like Mizzou.