College Football Week 3 Big Games & Best Plays

Week 3 is here and we're still fighting! After a 3-4 record last week we are 6-7-1 on the year. Now that we've gotten some samples of each team we're only going to improve! A lot of casuals are saying this is a bad slate but I disagree. Check out the best games to watch, bet, and why down below! If you just want to see the plays click here.

The following lines are all from DraftKings, please bet responsibly and only within your means.

#20 Arizona @ #14 Kansas State

Spread: K-State -7

Total: 59.5

Getting this matchup on a Friday is a treat for a “not so great” slate this weekend, at least that’s what the casuals are saying! Noah Fifita and Tet McMillan take a trip to Manhattan, Kansas to face off against K-State. Arizona got off to a hot start against New Mexico when McMillan was breaking school records but played a much tighter game than expected against Northern Arizona. K-State led by Avery Johnson had their way with UT Martin in Week 1 but came down to the 4th quarter against Tulane last week. The spread is K-State by a touchdown, so how does this play out?

Arizona seems like a sexy pick with a WR like Tet McMillan but I’m hesitant to buy into their team. Their OL play hasn’t been the best and I don’t think they’re going to be able to stop this K-State DL. I know K-State faced off against UT Martin and Tulane but they’re averaging 4 sacks and 10.5 TFLs per game! Meanwhile Arizona faced New Mexico and NAU and the OL didn’t look great but Fifita was able to extend plays enough to cover it up. If this K-State line can get to Fifita he may not be able to get the ball to McMillan which was NAU’s game plan. Now I will say, if Fifita can avoid the pressure K-State might be in trouble. They got diced up last week by Darian Mensah in the first half but made some good adjustments. Unfortunately, Fifita and the Arizona offense is even more explosive than Tulane.

I’m hoping the line drops to 6.5 but I’m going with K-State here. Since Chris Klieman took over K-State is 41-22 ATS. I think Klieman was saving some things on this offense for bigger games but after last week's scare at Tulane they won’t hold back against a ranked Arizona. Avery Johnson is known for using his legs and they haven’t displayed any dynamic running packages with him yet and I think we’ll see more this weekend. Arizona’s OL really worries me against this K-State defense and I don’t know how often Fifita will be able to find McMillan on these homerun plays under pressure. Since K-State loves to run the ball (57% of plays are rushes and that’s without the added Averey Johnson designed runs) I expect them to chew clock and limit Arizona’s chances at being explosive. Give me K-State.

K-State -7 (-112)

#4 Alabama @ Wisconsin

Spread: Alabama -16

Total: 49

What a brand match up this is. We rarely see Alabama face off against a BIG10 team and it’s not often we see them ranked anything other than #1. With that being said, things are different now without Saban and it’s showing on the field. Alabama cruised past WKU 63-0 in Week 1 but played a tight game against USF last week. The final score did finish 42-16 and Alabama did pull away but it wasn’t until the 4th quarter when they scored 28 points. So far through 2 weeks Bama is averaging 10 penalties and just shy of 90 penalty yards a game! This is not the disciplined Saban regime that we’re used to. But let’s not forget how Kalen DeBoer got here. He’s 104-12 in 9 seasons as HC across a few programs including a trip to the CFP National Championship with Washington! I think adversity is good and it’s best to face it early against foes you can recover against. DeBoer will use the mistakes they made in that game as teaching points moving forward and I have no doubt that USF was the perfect medicine for Bama. That’s why Saban has been playing them all these years! (and for recruiting purposes in Florida of course).

On the other hand I don’t think this Wisconsin team is there yet. While Luke Fickell looks to improve on the Badgers 7-6 season last year they’re still far away from competing for the BIG10 again. Tyler Van Dyke has not been great but at least he hasn’t turned the ball over. While the Bama DL was a bit undisciplined last week, like I said I think there will be a point emphasis to clean up those mistakes. That makes me nervous for Wisconsin’s OL. They did run the ball well against both South Dakota and Western Michigan but both games were dog fights. If they struggled to score in both of those games I don’t think the offense will be very efficient against Bama. On the other side of the coin, I think Bama will have no problems scoring between Milroe’s legs and the deep ball threat of Ryan Williams there’s absolutely no way Wisconsin can keep up. They’re going to be playing a very sad jump around heading into the 4th quarter. I saw this spread move from -15.5 to -16 and the total from 51 to 49. I have no play on the total but give me Bama lay whatever. Get -16 before it goes up, I have a feeling it will late.

Alabama -16 (-110)

#16 LSU @ South Carolina

Spread: LSU -6.5

Total: 48.5

A lot of people are not happy that game day is showing up to Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina. In fact many people are saying it’s the wrong Columbia and game day should be at Mizzou for the BC match up. While I do agree that ranked on ranked matchup will be interesting, I think most people are overlooking what could take place here between the Tigers and Gamecocks.

LSU opened the year on a loss to what we now know is a strong USC team. Luckily they got a chance to straighten things out in week 2 against Nicholls. While they did win 44-21 against much lower level competition, I think there’s still some takeaways from that game that could show up this week. LSU can’t find their running game replacement for Jayden Daniels. Against Nicholls they passed 38 times compared to just 21 rushes for a total of 74 rush yards. In the off season, one of my biggest concerns was who was going to step up in the run game. So we know LSU is looking to throw the ball a ton, but what does that mean for this game? Well South Carolina loves to rush the passer and especially with freshman phenom Dylan Stewart who’s recorded 2.5 sacks through 2 games. SC has had 5 sacks in each of the games they played already with one of them being Kentucky, who typically is built around a strong OL. I expect Nussmeier to be on the run a lot during this game.

LSU definitely has the edge at QB as Nussmeier is the real deal. But LaNorris Sellers is a young player with a high ceiling and he’ll have an opportunity against a ranked team to show it. He carried the ball much less last week against Kentucky but was decently accurate outside of 1 INT throwing. South Carolina’s offense will have to fight for yards but LSU’s secondary and defense as a whole has been lackluster. With that being said once again, I’m going to be on an island here. I feel that LSU is very public because of the brand and Brian Kelly. People are saying no way they can have 2 losses this early in the season they have to win! Well sure maybe they’ll win, but I don’t think they’ll cover. In fact, SC is a live dog but I’m going to give out the spread. I saw it at 7 earlier this week but it’s since moved to 6.5. I’m going to buy the half point because I don’t think it’s going back up. The play is Gamecocks +7.

South Carolina +7 (-128)

#24 Boston College @ #6 Missouri

Spread: Mizzou -15

Total: 54

This is the other Columbia! The one where everyone on twitter wants College GameDay to be. Columbia, Missouri…home of Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers. Mizzou hasn’t faced serious competition yet and I feel like they’ve been load managing. Their key guys are all getting the in-game reps they need but they’re reducing the risk of injury and exposing their playbooks before diving into conference play. Unfortunately, they’re going to receive a visit from the once frisky to now RANKED Boston College Eagles.

BC took the CFB world by storm when they defeated Florida State in Week 1 after FSU’s embarrassing loss to GTech in Week 0. BC didn’t let off the pedal as they throttled Duquesne 56-0. BC has looked great under new HC Bill O’Brien and QB Castellanos at the helm. Castellanos hasn’t had to throw the ball very much but he’s also a serious threat with his legs. This week that BC offense will really be tested by a Mizzou team that has yet to give up a point in games against Buffalo and Murray State. While they haven’t played true competition yet, they’re returning after their best season in 10 years ready to fight in SEC conference play. I think that will be the difference here. While BC has looked great so far, we’ve figured out FSU STINKS. So I’m not ready to declare BC a conference contender yet. While they are ranked, that rank weighs very heavily on the miscalculation of FSU’s preseason rank. I think Mizzou bounces BC back to earth here in year one for Billy O. I don’t love the number and I originally wasn’t going to give this play out but as time went on I made my decision. Let’s call the play… Mizzou -15!

Mizzou -15 (-110)

Indiana @ UCLA

Spread: Indiana -3

Total: 46

I’m not going to say much here. I’m pretty down on UCLA as I gave out their win total under and I’m up on Indiana as I gave out their over. IU beat W Illinois 77-3 last week in a statement game. Curt Cignetti is here to make a splash with the Hoosiers. Kurtis Rourke, the former MAC standout QB, has looked pretty good along with a strong run game. The IU offense isn’t going to have much of a problem scoring on this down UCLA team. UCLA’s new HC is a first time HC and it’s going to take time for him to grow into the role. Luckily, they did have a bye after beating Hawaii 16-13 so they may have a chance to clean things up. Unfortunately, I think the line should be way bigger and the sportsbooks models just haven’t caught up yet. I don’t need a bunch of stats ATS or EPA for these teams, eye test alone is enough here. This is my favorite play of the entire weekend! Indiana -3, I may even bet again at Indiana -6.5 for some added value.

Indiana -3 (-115)

Indiana -6.5 (+143)

Week 3 Bets

K-State -7 (-112)

Alabama -16 (-110)

South Carolina +7 (-128)

Mizzou -15 (-110)

Indiana -3 (-115)

Indiana -6.5 (+143)

UNLV @ Kansas OVER 57.5 (-108)

Kansas had a tough loss last week against Illinois. Kansas may have been slightly overrated and Illinois underrated before that game but it was a battle. This week Kansas is taking on UNLV who scored 72 against Utah Tech last week. Kansas is looking for a get right game and will need to have the offense humming before conference play, I expect last week's wake up call to help with that. On the other hand, UNLV has been rushing the ball like maniacs and I think will be able to get some points on the board against this Kansas defense. I’ve seen the line move from KU -7 to now -9.5. If Kansas is serious about their business the total should have no problem going over.

Kent State @ #7 Tennessee TENN -49 (-112)

Once again I’m going to say don’t overthink this one. Tennessee has looked great so far this year and this week will serve as a tune up game before taking a trip to Oklahoma. Kent State is not very good. They lost 55-24 to a not so great Pitt team in week 1 and fell short against St Francis PA 23-17 last week. Heupel and his Vols will look to run it up here as their SEC conference mates have against lesser teams. I don’t know if Kent State is even going to score a point here.