College Football Week 2 Picks and Preview
- sidelinebeef
- Sep 6, 2024
- 9 min read
Let's dive into Week 2 after an electric Week 1. It feels good to be back. Last week we finished 3-2-1 putting us at -0.31 units on the year with a 3-3-1 record including Week 0. This time we're back and we have a better idea of how some of these teams look regardless of competition. Below are a few of the Games to Watch to this weekend along with my plays on spreads and totals. If you just want to see the picks click here.
The following lines are all from DraftKings, please bet responsibly and only within your means.
12 noon EST on FOX
SPREAD: Texas -7
TOTAL: 42
The Texas Longhorns are coming to a Big House near you this Saturday! A matchup like this is why we show up on Saturdays. Can Quinn Ewers and Texas take a trip up to the Big House and beat the defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines?
Michigan had a disappointing game against Fresno State last week but as to be expected when you replace nearly half the roster. While Michigan’s offense did not look great, the defense showed up. The DL is tough and will cause havoc. They generated 3 sacks against Fresno State but locked down the run game holding them to 39 yards on 19 rushes. Will Johnson and the Michigan secondary will need to continue to perform against this speedy Texas offense. Texas looked great last week of course but it was against Colorado State. However, we know Ewers is a top QB and has some serious weapons in Isaiah Bond, Ryan Wingo and many others but will the OL hold up against the violent Michigan DL? On the other side, Texas is trying to replace some NFL guys they lost from last year on the DL. I’m not too sure their new DL is ready to compete with this Michigan OL. While the Michigan OL didn’t play up to previous year standards, under Sherrone Moore I’m more than confident in their ability to go up against the Texas DL.
I’ve been hearing a few interesting stats regarding Ewers' ability to pass without play-action. To be completely honest, I haven’t done much of a deep dive there but I do think Texas will have their hands full trying to establish the run game. Without a run game play-action isn’t so effective, so keep an eye out for this during the game. I don’t have a pick on the sides here but I’d lean on Texas to win the game and Michigan to cover points. I think the number is too large and the jump from -3.5 last weekend to -7.5 is a bit of an overreaction. If the line was still Texas at -3.5 we would be locking it up. With all that being said I think it’s going to be a close one and if it’s close we’d have to lean under. I’m taking the 1st half UNDER 21.5 (I’m buying the point to feel safe) at -127 odds on DK.
1st Half UNDER 21.5 (-127)
Arkansas @ #16 OK State
12 noon EST on ABC/ESPN+
SPREAD: OK State -10
TOTAL: 61.5
Arkansas was most definitely not what people expected in Week 1. Even though they only played UAPB they deserve some credit for scoring 70 points in a shutout win under new QB Taylen Green. Green looked good throwing for 229 yards 2 TDs and rushing for 88 yards and 2 TDs on 6 carries. Green was electric, but don’t forget it was against UAPB. Even though OK State also played an FCS team the level of competition between UAPB and South Dakota State is extremely different. While OK State didn’t win 70-0 they handled their business in a 44-20 win against a legit South Dakota State program.
This game will be tighter than we originally thought considering Arkansas’ improvement. The Arkansas defense is going to have their hands full with Ollie Gordon and will need to be stout upfront. They have the horses to do it but so does OK State on the OL. However, there is a bit of concern even though Gordon rushed for 100+ last week, it was on nearly 30 carries. The OL didn’t quite get the push we were expecting since we mentioned them last week as possibly the best OL in the BIG12. At the end of the day I do trust Gundy to right his ship and continue clean play while increasing efficiency. Bowman looked good and the team only had 1 penalty. Disciplined play like that goes along way and OK State is the type of team to win games by making the least mistakes. This line has moved from OK State -7.5 to -10. I’m wishing I got in earlier but I’m going to lay the 10 and put my faith in a consistent Mike Gundy over Sam Pittman who’s on the hot seat for a reason.
OK State -10 (-110)
Iowa State @ #21 Iowa
3:30 pm EST on CBS/Paramount+
SPREAD: Iowa -3
TOTAL: 35
Ahhh yes, the good ol’ “El Assico” game we look forward to every year. When two playoff irrelevant teams in Iowa State and Iowa face off in what I guess you could call a football game. Now I’m not throwing shade, I live for this matchup. Both teams get up strictly for state pride. The line is set at Iowa -3 after opening at -2.5. This is a classic bet the under game! Here’s why: Under has hit in 5 straight of these games with each game totaling less than 38 points (this was the opening total). This game will also be in Kinnick stadium where Iowa’s defense performs best. Iowa has kept 15 of the last 17 visitors to less than 17 pts with the only teams going over being Michigan and Nebraska. Simple, I don’t care how low Iowa totals get you just have to hold your nose and let Iowa do Iowa things.
You might be hearing Iowa finally has a passing attack after last weeks 40-0 win against Illinois State, but I’d say smoke and mirrors. Iowa led 6-0 at half with 7 total drives resulting in 4 punts, a turnover on downs, and 2 fgs. Cade McNamara did throw for 3 TDs in the second half but it was against Illinois State. This Iowa State defense will be much tougher to face with two of the better safeties in the BIG12 being back there. If Iowa State can not give up these newly unlocked downfield passes from Iowa (which they shouldn’t) Iowa will have to stick to it’s roots relying on Kaleb Johnson in the ground game. Iowa is huge on possessing the ball and eating clock so Iowa State’s offense will need to take their time and be efficient which will be tough against this Iowa defense.
Abu Sama (ISU RB) appeared to get banged up last week but got off the field quickly. I think Iowa State was trying to not show some of their stuff last week and really held back against North Dakota. Sama only had 5 carries and after his injury scare was quickly pulled. I already told you we’re taking the under but I can’t help but love Iowa State here. Everyone is on Iowa and their new look offense but I don’t buy it yet. I have no problem being late to the Iowa Offense breakout party. I think Rocco Becht and Abu Sama are going to keep this Iowa defense busy and as long as they can be efficient they’ll be close. Just to be contrarian here and fade the public I’m going Iowa State +3.
UNDER 35 (-112)
Iowa State +3 (-115)
7:30 pm EST on ABC/ESPN+
SPREAD: Tennessee -9
TOTAL: 60.5
I’ll start this off by saying I’m bought in…it’s Nico szn. Nico Iamaleava was electric in last weeks 69-3 win over Chattanooga. But I’m not buying the hype just because they beat Chattanooga. Nico stepped in the bowl game last year and destroyed Iowa 35-0 after being one of the highest ranked QB recruits in his class including Arch Manning, Jackson Arnold and Dante Moore. By all accounts of anyone who has seen him practice or play he is the real deal and he’s yet to show us otherwise.
Now I don’t want to overreact to NC State’s tough game last week against WCU but they did get off to a slow start. While Dave Doren always has a tough defense they lost a ton of pieces including their anchor at LB Peyton Wilson. They only returned one starter on the DL and will have a lot of work to do to be on par with the usual gritty NC State defense we’re used to. With that being said they’ll be facing off against Tennessee’s OL which is one of the better units in the country. On the otherside, NC State’s OL will need to step up against James Pearce and the Vols DL. Pearce is looking to be a #1 OVR draft pick at the end of this year and would love to prove it on a stage like this. If NC State’s line can keep Pearce at bay, transfer QB Grayson McCall is experienced enough to beat the weaker Vols secondary. However, it’s going to be tough to keep McCall protected and they’re going to need to establish a run game. While I don’t think NC State gave us their best stuff last week, I don’t think they have the horses to hang with this loaded Tennessee roster.
Under Josh Heupul, the Vols are 4-0 ATS in neutral site games (mainly bowl games) against teams including Iowa, Clemson, and Purdue. Meanwhile, NC State is 1-3 in neutral site games since 2020 against teams like Kentucky, Maryland, and K-State. While this game is a neutral site it will be in Charlotte. But that doesn’t scare me one bit, I think Nico is here to stay. Vols by 10 or more.
Tennessee -9 (-110)
Colorado @ Nebraska
7:30 pm EST on NBC/Peacock
SPREAD: Nebraska -6.5
TOTAL: 55.5
While Colorado will most likely not be competing for a spot in the playoff at the end of the year you’ll find them on the games to watch list more than any other team of their caliber. Colorado did win this match up last year 36-14 but it was against a very different Nebraska team. The Cornhuskers suffered from poor turnovers all season long but especially in this game. A lot was due to QB Jeff Sims who is no longer on the team. Freshman phenom QB Dylan Raiola has stepped in and demonstrated some serious play making ability. Now they did play UTEP but it’s a great start for Raiola who protected the ball well. This new Nebraska offense will give a lackluster Colorado defense some problems.
We’re still waiting for CU to prove they upgraded their defense after last weeks performance against NDSU. NDSU is no slouch and has the capability to win an FCS title but still shouldn’t be able to gash the Buffs defense for 454 yards as they did last week. One of Colorado’s biggest issues is time of possession. They often score quickly on explosive pass plays and the defense ends up spending most of the game on the field. Nebraska won’t mind limiting the time Sheduer Sanders has the ball in his hand, so I’m sure they’ll chew clock in the run game against a not so stout Colorado DL. This Colorado team is built on the back of Shedeur getting the ball to playmakers like Jimmy Horn and Travis Hunter in space. They have no identity on the defensive side of the ball and the offense doesn’t have the rushing ability to stay on the field for large chunks of time. This will keep Nebraska’s highly rated defense fresh while giving it’s offense the opportunity to work on slowing the game down. If Nebraska can limit the explosive plays and keep the ball in front of them, I don’t think they’ll have any problem moving the ball down field when it’s their turn. They just need to avoid playing a game of catch up against Colorado because that’s how you lose. As bad as I want to take Nebraska in this game, I can’t ask a freshman QB in a program with a 2nd year HC to cover a full TD against this explosive CU offense. I have no play here but will be locked on to this game to get a glimpse of how both of these teams stack up against other P4 competition.
WEEK 2 PLAYS
Other Week 2 Bets Not Mentioned
BYU @ SMU OVER 56 (-110)
Don’t overthink it. Both teams have dynamic offenses and are willing to put up points. While we’re waiting for the true arrival of Prestone Stone, the combo of him and Jennings has led to an average of 44 pts per game. While they were not against P4 talent, we could say BYU hasn’t earned its P4 status yet either as they’re still getting used to the BIG12. SMU’s weakest unit is the DBs and BYU has a strong QB in Retzlaff and he’s confident in his favorite target Chase Roberts. SMU will have their hands full with this experienced BYU secondary but I’m confident in Stone's ability to throw the ball and Jennings ability to be dynamic with his legs. Book it over 56.
Middle Tennessee @ Ole Miss -43 (-110)
Have you seen Lane Kiffin on twitter? He’s trying to attract as many eyes as possible on this Ole Miss team not only to help his QB compete for a Heisman but to benefit from a strong public perception. They took care of business last week and they’ll do it again this week, don’t over think it.
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