College Football Week 14 Picks & Preview

Last week wasn't all I had hoped it would be finishing 3-3 on the weekend. But that's improvement from the previous 1-7 stinkers I gave out before. This week I'm feeling GREAT about the board. This CFB season has been riddled with chaos and I'm starting to get a feel for it. I dug deep this week to give you the BEST PLAYS for this football weekend. So get your playbooks early and you'll have plenty of talking points for the dinner table. No more big game break downs here, just plays. Want to see all the plays click here.

Please bet responsibly and within your means.

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Minnesota @ Wisconsin

FRIDAY 12 PM CBS

SPREAD: 2.5

TOTAL: 41.5

Minnesota almost pulled it off last week against Penn State and we were right there with the cover. This Minnesota team has been great against the spread all year long at 8-3 on the season. Meanwhile Wisconsin has lost 4 straight in a rough stretch of PSU, Iowa, Oregon, and Nebraska. We knew heading into the season they’d have an extremely tough schedule, but how are they responding? If they win at home against Minnesota they’ll at least make a bowl game but can they get up for this game?

In the last 4 games Wisconsin has been shredded in the short to medium pass game with QBs completing over 70% of their passes. If they do that against Minnesota, they’ll surely lose as Minnesota’s offense performs best when QB Brosmer is efficient in the short to medium pass game. However the last 4 games were against Penn State, Oregon, Iowa and Nebraska; in which 3 have some pretty serious QBs. Brosmer has been good but has definitely shown some weaknesses so I don’t expect it to be easy for him. Wisconsin has a decent defense but their offense has been really bad. I don’t expect many points out of Wisconsin. On the other hand, Minnesota’s been awesome but it’s a lot easier to play up to Penn State’s level at home than to go to a sleepy camp randle against a non bowl eligible team. While Minnesota’s offense is efficient they don’t score a ton and only avg 24 ppg. I think this turns into a brawl on the ground and we don’t even sweat the under. *EDIT* I got this line at 43 it was quickly moved to 41.5 I’d be cautious on this one under 42.

UNDER 43 (-110)

Iowa @ Nebraska

FRIDAY 7:30 PM NBC

SPREAD: 4.5

TOTAL: 39.5

We used to love the times in which we could blind bet Iowa unders, but those days are gone. Kaleb Johnson is averaging 135 yards and nearly 2 TDs per game and Iowa is averaging 33 ppg in their last 4. Nebraska finally figured out their offense under new OC Dana Holgersen and managed to put it together in time to dismantle Wisconsin last week. If Raiola and company can continue to improve they should have no issues putting up points against this Iowa defense that isn’t as stout as usual. Iowa overs are 9-2 this season and Nebraska’s new offense is coming along. This number is just too low for me.

OVER 39.5 (-110)

#15 South Carolina @ #12 Clemson

SATURDAY 12 PM ESPN

SPREAD: 2.5

TOTAL: 49

This is a college football rivalry that runs deep in the state of South Carolina. But these teams haven’t faced off in recent memory with post season implications like this. South Carolina is trying to survive the logjam of 2 and 3 loss teams in the SEC and Clemson needs to win out to face off against Miami in the ACC Championship. This game means a bit more than usual this year.

South Carolina has sneaky been one of the best teams in the country not getting credit. They’re 8-3 on the season with losses coming to LSU by a fg, Ole Miss when Sellers was banged up, and Alabama on a failed 2pt conversion. If you ask me, they can beat just about anyone in the so called best conference in the country. Not to mention they are 8-3 ATS this season and 4-1 ATS as a underdog with the 1 loss coming to Ole Miss. This SC team is good on both sides of the ball. They’ve generated 8 turnovers in the past 5 games and are on a 5 game win streak against real opponents unlike Clemson.

The Tigers are 9-2 with an opening game loss to Georgia 34-3 and a 33-21 loss against Louisville. Meanwhile they don’t really have any wins to hang their hat on this season. Cade Klubnik has been great and refuses to turn the ball over while the defense has been tough in the run game. But I can’t stress this enough who has Clemson played?

Clemson has looked good but not against real competition. Meanwhile SC has been going toe to toe with some of the top teams in the country and bouncing back week after week, only showing improvement. I understand this games at Clemson so the line makes sense but I have a hard time seeing this SC team not whomp them. SC has lost 8 of its last 9 against Clemson and is looking to flip the script on that rivalry. Both teams are going to score but SC is going to come out on top as they fight for their spot in the playoff.

SOUTH CAROLINA +2.5 (-110)

OVER 49 (-108)

#8 Tennessee @ Vanderbilt

SATURDAY 12 PM ABC/ESPN +

SPREAD: 11

TOTAL: 48.5

I can’t stop riding with Vandy. They’re just not getting the respect they deserve for what they’ve done with this team. The books continue to doubt them and we’ll continue to take them as long as they cover. They covered last week against LSU in Death Valley!! This week they’re home against in state rival Tennessee who typically has their way with them. Diego Pavia will not lay down for this Vols team and I have to admit I will blindly ride here. You can dig into stats and scheme all you want with Vanderbilt but they have the intangibles you can’t quantify. Have you seen Diego Pavia? Guy is the definition of a DOG. He’ll take on whoever, whenever, wherever and he’s proved that all season. Now they have a chance to spoil their in state rivals season?

VANDERBILT +11 (-110)

#6 Miami @ Syracuse

SATURDAY 3:30 PM ESPN

SPREAD: 10.5

TOTAL: 67.5

This ones easy and doesn’t take much for me to bet. I have loved both offenses all year long and Kyle McCord outside of that game against Pitt has been great. Miami on the other hand has done nothing impressive on defense. We know both teams can score at will. Since conference play began, Miami has been giving up nearly 30 ppg to opposing offenses. Meanwhile Syracuse is averaging about 28ppg in conference play and nearly 31 ppg overall. If we can get 30+ from Syracuse, I’m sure Miami will take care of the rest. This game is in the dome, it’s going to be fast, there will be points, and expect Cam Ward’s heroics. Take the over.

OVER 67.5 (-108)

#3 Texas @ #20 Texas A&M

SATURDAY 7:30 PM ABC/ESPN+

SPREAD: 5

TOTAL: 49

This game is a war for Texas natives. This long standing rivalry was halted in 2011 and hasn’t resumed until this year. These teams have bad blood with each other and it’s been a long time coming, especially after Texas joined the SEC. This is a rivalry college football has dearly missed and it’s back bigger than ever before. This is a precursor to deciding a lot for the SEC in the playoff. If Texas wins here A&M could be locked out of the playoff from an at large bid. Meanwhile if A&M wins here, they have a chance to play for the SEC title and an auto bid to the playoff. Stakes are higher than ever.

Texas A&M has not lost at home since Week 1 against Notre Dame, who’s shaped up to be one of the best teams in the country. Even though they lost last week to Auburn, you heard Elko in the press conference. Their mind has been on Texas this whole time. A&M is good at home but they’re going to have to stand up to the test against this Texas OL. If the Aggies strong DL can create pressure Texas may crumble again as they did against Georgia. SEC fans have been shouting from the rooftops about Indiana and Penn State’s schedule, but who has Texas played? That Michigan win did not age well, Florida started a walk on at QB and Georgia abused them in Austin. So Texas has a lot to prove here as well because outside of UGA they have not seen a pass rush like this.

The key for A&M here will be the QB run game with Marcel Reed. The Aggies average 200+ yards a game on the ground while Texas ranks 11th in the country for opp rush yards pg at only 104 allowed. Texas hasn’t faced a team with a QB as dynamic as Reed yet so this will be a test for them as well. A&M is just different at Kyle Field and I can’t trust Texas to cover this. Texas is 2-5 ATS in conference play and 1 of those covers comes against Florida with a walk on QB. I can’t trust Texas but Elko’s proved we can trust the Aggies at home. Doubling up on this if the Aggies are to win here it’s got to stay low scoring.

TEXAS A&M +5 (-108)

UNDER 49 (-112)

ALL PLAYS

MINN/WISCO UNDER 43 (-110)

IOWA/NEB OVER 39.5 (-110)

SOUTH CAROLINA +2.5 (-110)

SC/CLEM OVER 49 (-108)

VANDERBILT +11 (-110)

MIAMI/CUSE OVER 67.5 (-108)

TEXAS A&M +5 (-108)

TEXAS/TEX A&M UNDER 49 (-112)