BATTLE FOR THE BIG12! WEEK 4 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS & PREVIEW
- sidelinebeef
- Sep 19
- 10 min read
PLAYBOOK CHAPTERS
WEEK 4 GAMES TO WATCH
Strap up for this one. We’re getting a BIG12 banger between the two current favorites to win the conference. Texas Tech and Behren Morton are riding high with the #1 Scoring Offense in the country averaging 58 ppg. Morton has improved tremendously since last year especially in the turnover department with a 11/1 TD/INT ratio through 3 games. This Texas Tech team has been all the rage but they haven’t Lubbock yet. Now they’ll have to travel to one of the toughest stadiums in the country, Rice-Eccles, to face a confident Utah team. Utah’s defense under Morgan Scalley is a top 25 defense every year with 2025 being no different. The Utes have rejuvenated their offense with additions of OC Jason Beck & QB Devon Dampier. The Utes offense ranks 3rd nationally in EPA per play for both pass and run plays. This is a matchup of good on good on both sides of the ball and will surely be one of the top games of the weekend.
SMU @ TCU -6.5 TOTAL: 63.5 12pm ESPN2
The SMU Mustangs have not gotten off to the start they expected after falling out of the top 25 rankings. They dropped a tough OT loss to Baylor but won 2 games against lower competition. Now they’ll traveling to TCU to take on a 2-0 Horned Frogs team that’s averaging 45 ppg. This reminds me a ton of the Baylor/SMU game and should make for good fireworks. TCU QB Josh Hoover has looked great completing 76% of his passes meanwhile RB Kevorian Barnes is averaging 7.4 yard per carry. The Mustangs defense will certainly have their hands full but will TCU’s defense be able to stop Kevin Jennings from scoring?
This feels like a revenge game with no bite. I’m not sensing the animosity between Sooners and Jackson Arnold but that doesn’t mean this won’t be a brawl. Jackson Arnold has brought some life to this Auburn offense that desperately needed a QB. He’s been slashing teams with his legs and accurate with his arm. However, majority of the passing game is short and quick and we’ve yet to see them be really successful throwing the ball downfield. However he’s been good enough to beat a potent Baylor offense and land Auburn at #22 in the AP Poll. Oklahoma certainly doesn’t regret their decision as they’re ecstatic about current Heisman favorite John Mateer. We’ve seen what this OU team could do against Michigan now they’ll be tested again by the Tigers. It comes down to one major thing in this game… Can Venables get the best of his old QB Jackson Arnold or will Hugh Freeze’s offense unlock the part of him OU was missing?
#21 MICHIGAN -1.5 @ NEBRASKA TOTAL: 47.5 3:30pm CBS
Sherrone Moore began his suspension last week and will not be present during this trip to Nebraska. Michigan will be led by Internet sensation Biff Pogi. If you don’t know him, look him up. The guy is a legend and absolutely HATES wearing sleeves. He’s hoping to be Alfred to Bryce Underwood’s Batman in Lincoln this Saturday. #21 Ranked Michigan Wolverines will face their second tough test of the season on the road again. This time it will be against Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola’s Cornhuskers. Nebraska has been a hopeful team looking to return to glory for a long time. All the stars have aligned here as it is the classic “Rhule Year 3” team with a 5 star QB and significantly upgraded roster. Nebraska’s locker room has to be thinking… “It’s Now or Never”.
SOUTH CAROLINA @ #23 MISSOURI -10 TOTAL: 48.5 7pm ESPN
This is certainly a little less exciting after SC’s loss to Vandy and Sellers injury. Sellers is listed as questionable to play in this game so we’ll have to wait and see. I do want to point out a few things about these teams though. The Gamecocks have been slightly overrated entering the season and that’s partially due to Seller’s Heisman hype and the Netflix SEC documentary but they lost a lot of key pieces last year. They’ve been a huge question mark for me entering the season and with volatility at QB it doesn’t seem like they have many answers yet. However, they are still an SEC team with serious talent like Dylan Stewart and Nyck Harbor. Missouri has been fool’s gold in the past beating up on weaker teams and folding against the Big Dogs. Problem here is we’re not sure if SC is a big dog or not. Mizzou has looked awesome Pribula at the helm and RB Ahmad Hardy has topped 100+ yards in each of their 3 games so far! We’re not sure what SC team is going to show up this Saturday but you 100% can’t count them out.
FLORIDA @ #4 MIAMI -8.5 TOTAL: 51.5 7:30pm ABC
Do I really have to say much here? Napier’s seat is SCORCHING hot as he tries to stop this Gator season from snowballing out of control. Unfortunately for Florida, they have one of the toughest schedules in the country and that was before we knew USF was for real. After a gruesome loss to LSU last week Florida’s defense is going to have to put this team on their back. I doubt Lagway will look as bad as he did in the first two games but I’m not expecting a highlight reel against this Miami defense. This is a classic sleepy spot for the Hurricanes. Miami has been known to play down to competition in the past. So far this year they’ve been nothing short of spectacular and have made a lot of progress in changing that narrative. Doesn’t matter though, it will always lurk in the back of my mind… is Cristobal going to goof again? If Miami shows up an takes care of business here, you’re looking a serious National Title Contender.
I can’t help but feel as though no one is talking about this game. We’re getting a ranked matchup between Illinois and Indiana! Indiana has had its fun beating up on ODU, Kennesaw St, and Indiana State but now it’s time for their real schedule. They kickoff conference play against Illinois followed by trips to Iowa, a bye, then Oregon. The narrative around Indiana is not much different than last year, we just need to wait for them to prove themselves. Meanwhile Illinois has looked great in games against Western Illinois, Duke and Western Michigan. The Fighting Illini offense is scoring a lot more than usual and the defense is just what you’d expect. This is surely going to be a fun game for the BIG10 and will definitely be used as a measuring stick as we go through the season.
ARIZONA STATE @ BAYLOR -2.5 TOTAL: 59.5 7:30pm FOX
This is just a fun game. Kenny Dillingham and ASU are an awesome story especially after last years trip to the playoff. Baylor has one of the most explosive passing offenses in the country! Between Sam Leavitt and Sawyer Robertson this game will not disappoint. Even though we mentioned Texas Tech and Utah as the current conference favorites, we know how the BIG12 works. Both teams have only lost 1 game to an SEC team are chomping at the bit to prove what they can do in conference play. Either one of these teams could find themselves in the BIG12 championship at the end of the year.
WEEK 4 PLAYERS TO WATCH
John Mateer - Oklahoma QB
Mateer is currently the Heisman favorite after garnering hype all summer as the #1 player in the transfer portal. So far this through this season he ‘s 3-0 including a home win over Michigan 24-13. He’s completing 67% of his passes with 5/3 TD/INT ratio. But where he really excels is with his legs. He’s already got 160+ rush yards and averaging just under 5 yards per carry with 4 TDs on the ground. Keep an eye out for his rushing game against the Auburn Tigers. (and NO Jackson Arnold can be the “story” all he wants for this revenge game, the key matchup is Mateer vs that Auburn defense.)
Bryce Underwood (Michigan QB) vs Nebraska Defense
Through the first two games Michigan has kept the playbook tight in hopes to limit Underwood’s mistakes. Last week under Biff Pogi we saw Underwood rush 9 times for 114 yards and 2 TDs! A facet of his game we all knew existed but haven’t seen yet. Underwood is still working on his completion percentage but that’s to be expected with a freshman QB. His real advantage is the ability to bail for positive yards when there is nothing in the pass game. While the OU defense was the best defense they’ve faced yet including this Cornhusker defense on Saturday, Underwood only had 3 rush attempts. Let’s see how he fares this week against a Nebraska defense that ranks #1 in the country defending the pass right now.
Tyreak Sapp & Gators Pass Rush
Sapp only has one sack so far and will need to step it up against these Hurricanes. Florida finished 16th in the country last year with 39 sacks! Through 3 games this year including one AGAINST LIU they rank 124th with only 2 sacks. Florida’s defense has kept them in these games against USF and LSU and has the ability to the same with Miami. But if they want to make a true impact they’re going to need to get home.
Ahmad Hardy - Missouri RB
Hardy has been AWESOME to start the season so far. He’s rushed for 460+ through 3 games averaging 8 yards per carry with 5 TDs! However, Missouri has played Central Arkansas, Kansas, and Louisiana. Not much to write home about. This will be their first test against an SEC defense. If Hardy goes for 100+ again I’m going to have to start considering this Missouri offense for real.
WEEK 4 PLAYS
UTAH -3.5 SMU/TCU OVER 63.5 ARKANSAS/MEMPHIS OVER 60.5 OKLAHOMA -6.5 NEBRASKA ML MIAMI -8.5 ASU/BAYLOR OVER 59.5
UTAH -3.5
This is a dangerous spot. We’re early in the season and most teams have only played cream puffs. It’s hard to get a feel as we’re still searching for measuring sticks, especially in the BIG12. But I’m going to go with what I know here. Both offenses have been nothing short of outstanding but Texas Tech has played ARK-Pine Bluff, Kent State and a lifeless Oregon State all in Lubbock. Now they’ll have to travel Rice-Eccles Stadium, one of the toughest places in the country to play, for their first road game with a transfer portal team. Sure Texas Tech looks like a Ferrari right now but they’ve faced no adversity so we’re not quite sure what’s under the hood. On the other side this Utah returned more than a fair amount of talent and the offensive transfers like Dampier joined as a platoon under OC Beck from New Mexico. Utah hasn’t played anyone serious yet since Nico forgot how to play football but they’ve gone on the road twice already are happy to be back home. I can’t see Utah losing this one at home and I can’t trust Texas Tech yet. I loved this line at 3, it get's a little scarier at -3.5 but we'll take it.
SMU/TCU OVER 63.5
Combined these offenses are averaging 83 points per game! TCU has scored 12 TDs in two games and is coming off a bye. SMU has proved they can score but we saw them get lit up by Sawyer Robertson and Baylor. I don’t think Josh Hoover and this TCU team are all that different and will have plenty of opportunities to convert against an SMU defense that isn't all that good. On the flip side we haven't seen TCU's defense tested yet and we know Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs offense are capable of scoring a ton.
ARKANSAS/MEMPHIS OVER 60.5
Together these two teams are averaging 78 ppg and allowing 39 ppg. Arkansas is the definition of an over team and there's not much to expect from their defense. Memphis is an awesome program and has the ability to win this game out right! I'm going to continue betting Arkansas overs all year. They've covered the over in 2 of 3 games already and the one they missed was at 64.5 against Alabama A&M. Memphis is sure to hold their own in the scoring department here take the over.
OKLAHOMA -6.5
Jackson Arnold has found his new home in Auburn and is looking much better than he did in a Sooner uniform. He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes (they’re mainly less than 10-15 yards) and is yet to throw a pick. He’s done well with his legs rushing for 4 TDs and averaging 5.5 yards per carry! But he’s going to run into a Sooner defense this weekend doesn’t give up much. OU has only given up 1 TD on the year and it was to Michigan! The Sooner defense also ranks 4th in the country in 3rd down % with only 17% of opponents converting on 3rd. I’m not sure if this Auburn defense is ready for OU either. I mentioned after Michigan that Arbuckle will need to be conservative with Mateer’s play calls to avoid burning him out too early. Last week he only had 7 rushes against Temple but he rushed 19 times against Michigan and I expect this one to look more like that Michigan game. Give me Sooners -6.5.
NEBRASKA ML
This is the ultimate the spot for Nebraska to leap into the sights of the playoff. I'm a believer in the Matt Rhule Year 3 trend and I'm going to stick with it. Nebraska is at home here so Underwood will be tested again on the road in a hostile environment. Raiola has looked great under OC Dana Holgerson. While they did start the year slow against Cinci they had the opportunity to grease their wheels against Akron and Houston Christian. Michigan is still looking for playmakers at WR and wondering when their OL is going to get it together. Nebraska has a solid defense especially against the pass and will be ready for Underwood to use his legs. I love Nebraska at home here to get the job.
MIAMI -8.5
Miami. Miami. Miami. I don’t want to hear the “right side” is Florida. The “right side” last week was Florida and look how that went. Billy Napier may have fooled the Florida AD into believing him again but he won’t get me. This Miami team is also somehow just better than last years team with Cam Ward and that’s hard to grasp. I think Cristobal might have done it this time and this Canes team will be in the post season. This number has also been rising throughout the week and I think for good reason. I think Miami wins by at least double digits here!
ASU/BAYLOR OVER 59.5
Baylor is another over team I'm going to continue ride this season. Sawyer Robertson is one of the best QBs in the country and will be able to move the ball against an ASU defense that doesn't rank so well against the pass. Arizona's State offense won't have too much trouble moving the ball against Baylor either. While Baylor does score a ton they also let up an average of 41.5 ppg! I'm expecting the Sun Devil offense to have one of their better performances to date and this to be a boat race.
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