Week 1 College Football Picks and Preview!
- sidelinebeef
- Aug 29, 2024
- 10 min read
In this post I'll be breaking down some of the big games you'll see on TV in week 1 and even giving out some picks. If you want the full breakdown continue reading. If you just want to see the picks, click here.
The following lines are all from DraftKings, please bet responsibly and only within your means.
Thursday
UNC @ Minnesota
8pm EST on FOX
SPREAD: UNC -2
TOTAL: 51
This is the first Week 1 matchup between two P4 schools, so by law we have to have some action. Mack Brown and his Tar Heels are set to take on PJ Fleck and the Golden Gophers for the second time in two years. Last year, UNC cruised to a 31-13 victory in Chapel Hill, but plenty has changed since then. Both teams have shaken up their rosters in the offseason, hoping to kick off the '24 season with a dub.
The big question mark right now is Darius Taylor. The soph Minnesota RB was a game-changer last year before getting sidelined by injury. He racked up 138 carries for almost 800 yards in just six games as freshman! Unfortunately, he picked up a leg injury in camp and we're waiting to hear his official status, but it doesn't look good. If he can't go tonight, I'm interested to see who on this Minnesota team steps up. On the flip side, UNC boasts a dynamic RB in Omarion Hampton, who tore it up last season with over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs. Both teams have had their struggles up front on the DL so I expect a ground-heavy game. But don't overlook Minnesota's new QB, Max Brosmer, who's fresh off a Walter Payton Award (that's like the FCS Heisman!). He'll also have a new weapon in Christian Driver, a Penn State transfer and son of former NFL WR Donald Driver.
This game's outcome will likely hinge on which offense shows up and takes control. Both teams have had defensive woes and they'll be up against some serious rushing attacks. With both sides debuting new QBs (Max Johnson and Connor Harrell for UNC/Max Brosmer for Minnesota) it's anyone's guess how this plays out.
I'm leaning toward the Gophers and here's why: Minnesota has an impressive 102-31-7 record in home openers all time but is 6-2 in their last eight (5-2 under PJ Fleck). They know how to get up at home. Fleck has also snagged some key pieces he was missing last season, especially at QB and WR. Even though Darius Taylor's status is up in the air, I'm feeling good about Minnesota. Give me Minnesota +2 at home! (+110 if you like the moneyline).
MINNESOTA +2 (-108)
North Dakota State @ Colorado
8pm EST on ESPN
SPREAD: Colorado -10.5
TOTAL: 55
While this matchup might not feature two P4 teams, there will be a ton of eyes on this game. Last year, CU and the Sanders family burst onto the CFB scene with a bang against TCU winning 45-42. Though their momentum fizzled with 8 losses in their last 9 games, that might just be what they needed to grow. Even with a top QB in Shedeur Sanders and the electrifying Travis Hunter they needed a year of P4 competition after attending Jacksonville State. This year, they're ready to shake things up again and won't be underestimating this powerhouse program that is NDSU.
North Dakota State is a whole different beast with 9 FCS Nattys since 2011! They've even racked up 6 wins against FBS programs in that time (Kansas, Minnesota, K-State, Iowa State, and Iowa). Known for churning out NFL talent on the OL, if that holds true they could pose a serious threat to Colorado. Especially since the Buffs had a tough time defending the run last season allowing roughly 176 yards per game on the ground. Both teams have undergone massive changes since last season. NDSU is led by new HC Tim Polasek, who was the OC during 2 of their championship runs. He'll be counting on dynamic QB Cam Miller, who threw for 19 TDs and ran for 13 last season, to lead the charge.
The line was CU -9.5 at the time I was wrote this but has since moved to -10.5. Even though I'm not making a pick here, the following info might help you make yours. Colorado has revamped their OL with true freshman Jordan Seaton (#1 OL recruit) and a few coveted transfers. If they can get on the same page and protect Shedeur ( who was sacked an FBS high 52 times last season) the Buffs should have no problem scoring. Colorado's got the edge in athleticism, but NDSU might keep things close or even cover if their OL is anything like years past. They're going to need it against a supposedly beefed up CU defense.
Saturday
12 noon EST on ABC/ESPN+
Neutral Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA
SPREAD: UGA -13.5
TOTAL: 48.5
Kicking off Week 1 with a ranked matchup this thrilling feels like a throwback to 2021! Back then, UGA opened the season with a win against Clemson and went on to win the CFP title. The game ended up being a classic defensive showdown, ending 10-3 with only TD being a pick-six. I expect more of the same intensity this time around!
Clemson's HC, Dabo Swinney, has faced some heat over his NIL and transfer portal philosophies, but don't let that fool you. One down season doesn't erase Swinney's knack for developing top-notch DL. Sure, Clemson has some new faces this year, but they're classic Dabo recruits who fit his system. I'm placing my trust in his guys over other teams that may have revamped completely through transfers. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they're up against a team that's stacked at every position. Georgia is a powerhouse, and even though they've lost a slew of guys to the draft, the same recruiting principle applies to Kirby Smart's guys.
This game is set to be an old-school slugfest between two top-tier programs with rock-solid defenses. That's why I'm leaning toward the under for this matchup. Clemson is still waiting for Cade Klubnik to prove himself as the QB of the future, but so far, he hasn't fully delivered. Meanwhile, UGA's Carson Beck is expected to be a top draft pick by season's end. Both teams rely heavily on their running games and boast stout DL. Rumor has it that Florida transfer Trevor Etienne might be suspended due to off-season issues, which would be a blow for Georgia. Although Georgia has plenty of depth at RB, they'll need all hands on deck against this tough Tiger defense. Given that the last time these two teams met, the only TD came from a defensive play, I'm all in on the UNDER here.
UGA/CLEMSON UNDER 48.5 (-112)
#8 Penn State @ West Virginia
12 noon EST on FOX
SPREAD: PSU -8
TOTAL: 51.5
Last year's showdown between these two teams was a banger, even if the final score made it look like a blowout. It was a tight 7-7 in the second quarter until Penn State poured on 24 unanswered points in James Franklin's shamelessly obvious attempt to cover the spread. This year, both teams have stepped up their game. Neal Brown, who secured an extension and cooled off his hot seat, helped WVU finish with a 5-2 record at home last season. He's counting on experienced QB Garrett Greene and a solid group of RBs to drive the Mountaineer's offense. WVU might boast the best OL in the BIG12, with OK State as the only serious competitor. They'll need that line to make an impact against Penn State's defense that ranks as one of the best in the country.
While Penn State's defense may be one of the best in the country, this game will likely hinge on the offensive performance. Drew Allar, who faced some heat last season, particularly after a rough outing against Michigan, actually had a solid year, throwing for over 2,600 yards and a 25/2 TD/INT ratio. In fact, against WVU last year Allar threw for 21/29 325 yards and 3 TDs. For the Nittany Lions to make a push for the National Title, Allar needs to keep improving. While PSU has two talented RBs, neither had a particularly standout season last year. With new OC Kotelinicki at the helm, Penn State's offense has the potential to be explosive, as long as Allar can continue to develop his vertical passing game.
As I mentioned, PSU's defense might be among the best in the country, so for WVU to pull one out here or at least cover, they'll need Greene to use his legs and lean on the big OL. Since 2021, Penn State is 8-4 against the spread in non-con games and 8-1 as an away favorite. Meanwhile, under Neal Brown, WVU is 6-7 against the spread as a home dog. GIVE ME PENN STATE LAYING 8. Even if you don't bet this one, this game deserves a second screen right next to UGA Clemson.
PENN STATE -8 (-110)
#19 Miami @ Florida
3:30 pm EST on ABC/ESPN+
SPREAD: Miami -2.5
TOTAL: 54
This may be the most difficult game to get a read on in Week 1. The Miami Hurricanes are storming into the Swamp to face off against Billy Napier's Florida Gators in what could end up being the game of the week! We've been hearing about the return of "THE U" since Cristobal took over and while the roster looks great on paper it hasn't always lived up to expectation. The question is: Will this year be when they finally match their hype to their success? (It's a similar to the disease that Longhorn fans have.)
The Canes snagged the prize QB of the transfer portal, Cam Ward, and didn't stop there. With the addition of RB Damien Martinez and WR Sam Brown, Miami's offense is set to make some serious waves. Their defense is no slouch either with guys like Rueben Bain, Tyler Baron and Simeon Barrow ready to bring the heat. But don't count out the Gators just yet. Florida QB, Graham Mertz, was quietly one of the best QBs in the SEC last year and if he keeps up his form could give Miami's new secondary some problems. This game will come down to which defense can make the crucial stops and which team can avoid turnovers. Cam Ward has had a knack for giving the ball away in the past while Mertz was stellar at minimizing mistakes last season. Florida will need to hold the line if they want to keep Miami's ground game in check.
One of the biggest mysteries heading in this game is whether Miami's newly built roster will gel in Week 1. I'm not picking a side here, it's just too unpredictable. However, check out these notes: the last 4 matchups between these teams have all gone under the total points and the Gators are 5-1 straight up in their last 5 season openers. Under Napier, Florida is 3-6 against non-con teams, while Miami is 4-5. Do with that info as you will, even though I won't be betting, I'll be watching.
7:30 pm EST on ABC/ESPN+
SPREAD: Texas A&M -3
TOTAL: 46
Buckle up for this because there's a lot going on here. Mike Elko is settling into his new digs in College Station and what better way to do that than beating your former QB Riley Leonard. Last year, Elko and Leonard pulled off a jaw-dropping Week 1 upset against Clemson at DUKE!!!! Now they're squaring off as Leonard steps into the spotlight as Notre Dame's starting QB.
Originally, the line had A&M as 1 point underdogs at home but things shifted fast. The Aggies are now favored by 3 points at Kyle Field against the Fighting Irish. The key to this game will be the big men upfront. After losing stars Joe Alt and Blake Fisher, the Irish needed some young guns to step up this year. Unfortunately projected starting soph LT, Jagusah, is out for season with an injury and is being replaced by a freshman. The rookie OL will have to face off against newly acquired DE Nic Scourton, who led the BIG10 in sacks last year at Purdue and is ready to have a breakout season in the SEC. Notre Dame typically has a strong ground game, but they'll be tested against A&M's stout defensive front and Elko's strategic mind. If Leonard can get the passing game rolling it might open up some opportunities for the Irish. On the flip side, the Aggies will lean on Connor Weigman to drive their offense. Weigman is sneakily impressive and will be backed by a seasoned OL.
This game will come to defense for me. It's going to be tough for Notre Dame to find their rhythm at Kyle Field, though I do believe they have playmakers on the offense. The challenge will be getting the ball to those playmakers with A&M's DL in breathing down Leonard's neck. With A&M's playoff hopes hinging on this game, I'm riding with A7M -3 and UNDER 46.5. Expect a gritty, hard-nosed football battle that the Aggies might just edge out because of home field advantage. Sure, everyone and their dog might be betting on A&M and it feels like a trap but sometimes the obvious square pick is the right pick. Don't over think this one.
TEXAS A&M -3 (-105)
TEXAS A&M/NOTRE DAME UNDER 46 (-112)
Sunday
7:30 pm EST on ABC/ESPN+
Neutral Site: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas NV
SPREAD: LSU -4
TOTAL: 64
While we're still a week away from the NFL, this Sunday's CFB showdown between USC and LSU is going to be a good one. Last year, both teams played little to no defense and relied on their star QBs in Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams. This time around, LSU is turning to Garrett Nussmeier to take the reins of the Tiger offense, while Lincoln Riley is gearing up with Miller Moss. Both QBs had standout performances in their bowl games at the end of the season but this Week 1 clash in Vegas is a whole new beast.
If LSU wants to win this game, they'll need to protect their secondary by wreaking havoc up front. New DC Blake Baker (no he's not related to Coach O's Ray Baker, IFYKYK) has to be a major upgrade since it would be hard for LSU's defense to be as bad as they were last year. On the flip side, Lincoln Riley has finally parted ways with Alex Grinch and brought in crosstown rival DC D'Anton Lynn from UCLA. Lynn's brought over a few UCLA guys to bolster the defense. While both defenses have seemed to upgrade, I'll need to see them in action before I believe it.
Offensively, both teams are packed with firepower. LSU's defense will have their hands full trying to contain USC weapons, Makai Lemon, Zach Branch, and Duce Robinson. Riley's track record with QBs is impressive, so I'm expecting Miller Moss to shine. That's why I'm all in on the over for this game. the total has soared over 16 of the last 17 LSU games and 17 of the last 20 USC games. Plus, the total has gone over in 4 of USC's last 5 games as an underdog. GIVE ME THE OVER.
LSU/USC OVER 64 (-108)
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